Alan Skrainka
Alan Skrainka
acted analysis customers earnings fed growth guess market neutral next overall points practice price promptly service shifting solid technical trend year
We feel we can do a service to our customers if we just get the overall trend right. We don't really practice technical analysis or try to guess the price points next week. But the trend does look like it's higher, because the Fed now is probably shifting into neutral earnings are very strong. And because the Fed acted promptly they ensured we would have another year of solid growth next year. That is what the market is anticipating.
computer concern corporate information personal reduced sales slowing technology
There's still a lot of concern about slowing personal computer sales and reduced corporate information technology purchases.
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Technology is still the fastest growing segment of the US economy. Earnings are growing at 20-30 percent year over year, and US companies lead the world in almost every major category.
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Techs were hot and everything else was not on confusion about the future of interest rates. When the interest-rate picture is cloudy, the focus turns to earnings. And earnings in the tech sector have been good.
technology
It's the same story. Technology is hot, and everything else is not.
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The next major event is Microsoft's response, but I don't think that's significant. It's significant but not to the technology sector as a whole.
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Clearly, Microsoft is the catalyst for today's tech sell-off.
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It has nothing to do with the economy. It was in the private equity unit where they tried to help fledgling tech companies get started.
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What you have going on in this market is a flight to quality, which is the blue chips, as tech stocks are priced to perfection.
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The bond market was so weak all day that it pushed the broader market lower. Investors weren't talking about if the Fed will raise rates, but how much.
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The rest of the market continues to struggle with reports that continue to show the economy is too strong.
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The Fed often overshoots and I think you have to prepare for that outcome.
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Individual investors have to separate the statistical noise of week to week numbers and focus on the big picture.
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I'm hopeful that we're nearing the end of this series of tightening. I don't think we have a serious inflation problem. With strong productivity, unit labor costs are under control.