Alan Skrainka
Alan Skrainka
august fed hike inflation leave people rates risks saying toward waiting
People are waiting for the Fed. I think the Fed will leave rates alone, probably say that the risks are tilted toward inflation and people are also saying they'll come back in August and hike again.
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You're seeing a return to traditional measures of value as investors become more focused on things like (price-to-earnings ratios), interest rates and earnings.
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It's just been a very quiet day. Nobody wants to make a big bet prior to tomorrow's decision. People are pretty convinced that the Federal Reserve won't make a change to rates but they want to see the statement. It doesn't make a lot of sense to make a big commitment today when you have such an important meeting tomorrow (Tuesday).
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Investors are focusing on Greenspan and the fact that he said they (the central bank) had increased rates four times and it did little to slow the economy. He is saying more work needs to be done.
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The bond market was so weak all day that it pushed the broader market lower. Investors weren't talking about if the Fed will raise rates, but how much.
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The rest of the market continues to struggle with reports that continue to show the economy is too strong.
fed prepare
The Fed often overshoots and I think you have to prepare for that outcome.
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Individual investors have to separate the statistical noise of week to week numbers and focus on the big picture.
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I'm hopeful that we're nearing the end of this series of tightening. I don't think we have a serious inflation problem. With strong productivity, unit labor costs are under control.
ibm looks market unchanged
Take IBM out and the market looks pretty much unchanged on the day.
close five next reasonably relative talking
It's (Johnson & Johnson) very reasonably priced, relative to its prospects, and while J&J may be at a yearly high, again, we think it is pretty close to its five-year low, if you are talking about the next five years.
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Small business owners have a great stake not only in what's going on in the stock market, but what's happening in the overall economy as a result.
acted analysis customers earnings fed growth guess market neutral next overall points practice price promptly service shifting solid technical trend year
We feel we can do a service to our customers if we just get the overall trend right. We don't really practice technical analysis or try to guess the price points next week. But the trend does look like it's higher, because the Fed now is probably shifting into neutral earnings are very strong. And because the Fed acted promptly they ensured we would have another year of solid growth next year. That is what the market is anticipating.
drives fed hikes inflation line low market next pressure psychology rate short
We think, in the short run, psychology drives the market but in the long run, fundamentals drive the market. We see very low inflation and no inflationary pressures. We think, going forward, expectations have come back down in line with fundamentals and we won't have the pressure of Fed rate hikes over the next 12 months.