Alan Kral
Alan Kral
based consumer economy leg risk
But the real risk that we have to see with the economy is -- does it take another leg down based upon consumer spending?
ability awful both buyers hard insurance markets money risks soft terms themselves
They're heavily into the insurance business, but in a very interesting way, in terms of an arbitrage between the buyers and sellers. They don't take an awful lot of insurance risks for themselves and they've been able to demonstrate the ability to make money in both soft markets and hard markets for insurance premiums.
acts bring earnings economy extra fed finally growth hurt recently risk situation slow stocks strong
The big risk with the stocks that have done well recently is that the economy is so strong that it can't continue, and when it slows down, that will hurt earnings. Secondly, when the Fed finally acts to slow the economy and bring down inflation, it will be a double-whammy to earnings - and it will be an extra big whammy to those stocks that have been in the situation where they really need strong earnings growth going forward.
changed couple economic economy information last regard totally weeks
The whole last couple of weeks with the economic information that has come out has totally changed people's expectations with regard to the economy going forward.
fed market peace sensitive stocks time until
Probably there won't be any peace until after the Fed has spoken. This is a very sensitive time in the market and you'd better be comfortable with the stocks you own.
basis change fed impact order people points quarter respond
I think people are just not going to respond to what the Fed does if it's only 25 basis points (a quarter point). In order to have any kind of impact he has to change people's actions, he has to change what people do.
coming continue good line numbers straight volatility
We'll continue to see volatility for two reasons. First, there's no straight line of good numbers continuously coming out of the economy.
adding bad bias flowing gets money news underlying until upside
The AT&T thing gets some money flowing around into the mergers-and- acquisitions end of the business, which is adding some froth. The underlying bias is on the upside until bad news comes out, and I don't think the bad news is over.
alan chairman disappoint means range reflected seeing swing today
What you're seeing today is that swing back and forth. There's always a range of expectations, which means he'll (Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan) always disappoint somebody, and a lot of that disappointment was reflected yesterday.
demand environment prices returned
Now that the baseline of demand has returned and (oil) prices returned to around $20 to $21 a barrel, the environment is such that there will be a return to exploration, and Schlumberger will be a big beneficiary.
fed past rally relief weeks
We think the rally in Nasdaq over the past two weeks is really a relief rally. The relief is they don't think the Fed has to go any further.
anticipate defense past people quite run sector seeing start war
The defense sector has had quite a run over the past 18 months. As people start to anticipate a war scenario, we're seeing a little froth in these stocks.
asia demand domestic drop expect exposure floor lifting near oil pick prices recovery time
We pick those two for their exposure to the domestic market. We think the recovery in Asia is lifting demand and has re-established a floor under oil prices, and we don't expect prices to drop any time in the near term.
oil ought positive price several starting
We like the oil stocks. Oil has been in the dumpster for several years. We're starting to see the price hikes. Oil is up over $30 a barrel. This ought to be positive for these companies.