Alan Ackerman
Alan Ackerman
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Bargain hunters are surfacing today. The feeling going into next year is the economy is going to slow down.
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Rate hikes bite different sectors of the economy at different rates. For example, one of the key areas that was hit hard and appears to be slowing down is housing. Consumer spending will take some time to slow down, maybe three to six months out. But in any case, what the Fed is targeting is                  GDP of 5 percent this year and a GDP hopefully next year of closer to 4 to 4-1/4 percent.
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I like two stocks, Apache and Ocean Energy. I don't own either of them. The firm doesn't make a market in any of them. We don't have an investment banking relationship, to the best of my knowledge, but I think both stocks have done well in the poor market, ... Apache is really building a pipeline of reserves. They drill in seven major countries. They're natural gas rich. They have held in this market and I think we can look for big earnings coming up over the next year or two.
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With a market as nasty and negative as it is at the moment, there's little room for error. The Nasdaq has contracted very sharply in a short period of time. Its drop in a year is approximately 60 percent, but this is not representative of all companies that are publicly traded.
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The biggest bull market in history still appears to be intact, ... Although the market is up tenfold since 1982 and lots of wealth has been created, there are still buyers to be found on market pullbacks.
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That has helped the techs today (Wednesday). They have a reasonably upbeat forecast.
helped reasonably today upbeat
That has helped the techs today (Wednesday), ... They have a reasonably upbeat forecast.
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Once again, it's anybody's guess next week. It would not surprise me to see people sell on strength, take a little cash off the table and wait for the markets to stabilize.
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The jobs number was fuzzy, even though on balance it helped to perk up the market, ... Based on that number, the market is now factoring in that the economy is not weak enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in its Sept. 24 meeting.
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The Microsoft ruling is a pep pill for business overall because it indicates the current (White House) administration is likely to be more pro-business than the previous administration.
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The Fed has to set a leadership mode for the U.S. economy and the market will follow.
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It will take some type of catalyst to turn this market. One can't be sure what that will be or when we will see it. Meanwhile, valuations are contracting significantly and my sense is that the market is reaching an oversold condition. Much of the market's rebound will have to do with clearing up some of the uncertainties.
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The world is looking for lower interest rates. Clearly, the psychology world-wide remains highly nervous.
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The U.S. economic recovery appears to be further down the road than many expected, so another cut in interest rates is not likely to mean a great deal, ... What's more important is when companies report they're starting to see a reduction in inventories.