Alan Ackerman
Alan Ackerman
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There is a better tone to the market and money is flowing back into both the Dow and the Nasdaq. Many think we've seen the worst and the next interest rate cut by the Fed (Federal Reserve) will help get the economy going.
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With a market as nasty and negative as it is at the moment, there's little room for error. The Nasdaq has contracted very sharply in a short period of time. Its drop in a year is approximately 60 percent, but this is not representative of all companies that are publicly traded.
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This was the last chance for the Fed to raise rates in 1997. The market reacted earlier as if nothing would happen, and when the news came we saw some buyers but also some sellers going to work,
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Earnings warnings continue to dent confidence and the price of individual issues, ... This is a market that's nasty and negative. It's difficult to divine if we're reaching a bottom or not.
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While the market has taken a big hit today, it's shown some spring back, ... It's a multifarious number of things all working at once.
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There doesn't appear to be any reason why this market will break out of its current trading range. Inventories continue to be high and demand does not seem to be as high as it could be.
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One more solid salvo from the Fed, combined with a tax cut, could be the combustible combination to get the market going.
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My sense is that the market is responding to the possibility that a meaningful economic stimulus package will be in place soon that will at least shore up some of the shortfall in capital spending,
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My sense is that an earnings recovery is further away than expected and there is no immediate catalyst to turn this market sharply higher. We could have a trading rally, but on balance, people are still nervous about the earnings outlook.
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September will be as difficult for the markets as August as we enter the earnings pre-announcement season,
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I think people are hurting and we're in a market where there is more 'sell' advice than 'buy' advice. Buying is highly selective and still full of risk.
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I think gains in the market have outrun fundamentals. The move has been too much too soon. I see the likelihood of a pullback next week.
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It could well be another week of stabilization and consolidation as the market seeks to hold its own, ... We are likely to see some earnings disappointments. Conversely, we're also likely to see some earnings surprises. I'm looking for a market that stays in a reasonably tight trading side.
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Retail investors appear to be slower to commit funds to the market this time, ... The market's momentum and volatility has caused some investors to step aside as the market has worked lower.