William Dudley
William Dudley
add economy election elections fed fuel hold market next rally reality return soft start stock time
The Fed is on hold at least through the election but I think we'll get a little more tightening at the start of next year. I think, for the time being, we have a soft landing. But I think the reality is the stock market rally will probably add a little fuel to the economy and the tightening will return next year.
clear earnings market next optimistic
I think it's clear that the market is pretty optimistic about earnings next year.
apparent comfort conclude given hike likely market next outcome press rate reports
Given the Fed's apparent comfort with market expectations and press reports to the contrary, we reluctantly have to conclude that a rate hike is now the most likely outcome next week.
people
Once that happened, all the people who were bearish were routed.
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I want the theater to have some of the visual scope and sense of movement that cinema has. Directors often talk about breaking through the fourth wall. I want to break through the second wall, the back wall.
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This disaster is unleashing the type of energy-supply shock that we had viewed as the economy's greatest vulnerability.
bull couple decent last markets strong
We won't see the very strong bull markets that we've had over the last couple of years. But another decent year? Yeah, absolutely...That's very possible.
against basically designed lean wind
It's basically designed to lean against the wind a little.
consumers convince increase market november possible rate slow stock
It's possible we'll see at least one more rate increase in November and we could see another one or two after that if things don't slow down. It may take that much to convince consumers and the stock market to take a breather.
consequences growth
It's not that growth is bad. It's that the consequences of that growth can be negative.
afford doubt evidence fed inflation patient pressures seems wait
There seems very little doubt that the Fed will go a quarter-point. There is no evidence of inflation pressures yet, so the Fed can afford to be patient if they want to, but I don't think they want to wait around for problems.
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There is very little evidence that the momentum of the economy is slowing at all.
bad easily far inflation
If you don't go far enough, you may have a bad inflation consequence; if you go too far, you can easily reverse.
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This recession was really an investment bust and a bust in the stock market, so the recovery is going to be very different than in the past.