Tony Dwyer
Tony Dwyer
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We've had a market where negative news on the economy and the corporate profit picture have dominated. Companies may have beaten lowered estimates, but we're expecting weak economic reports this week.
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People are looking for something that isn't necessarily going to happen. They're making the assumption that things are going to turn negative and there's no evidence to support it.
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Investors, analysts, everybody that has anything to do with Wall Street is looking for the market to go down. And in that environment the sentiments becomes so negative that there is only one direction that the market can go, and that it up.
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It's really a continuation of the selling that we saw last week. Sentiment was negative going into yesterday, so a lot of people are using the strength in yesterday's prices to cut losses.
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Stocks are clearly under pressure. You would expect the higher rates to negatively impact the consumer.
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There's a bias, because of the bubble-popping, to be negative no matter what after we've had a good rally, because you don't want to be accused of being too optimistic.
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What's important for investors to realize about the Dow is it's not just steel stocks and industrial-related stocks. There are growth stocks. There are financial, entertainment and industrial stocks. So when one sector isn't doing well, another sector may be doing well. And that's exactly what's propelling the Dow.
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You don't know how this is going to end. No kidding we're going to win, but how are we going to win? There's nothing to do but just sit on the sidelines and pray.
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We could pull back a bit, but it will be limited to about a 5 percent decline and it will be quick. This market rally has not been about buying interest, but about the total lack of selling interest.
There are a lot of gut-wrenching, earnings-driven disappointments that you have to wade through to be able to come out the other end,
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Nobody can figure out what's going to happen with the market -- they're all guessing. Let's say CNN or Fox or MSNBC brings up a picture of a GI in a bad situation. The market takes a dip. Is that a fundamental or a technical move? No, it's a war-driven, live-video stream move, which means it's totally unpredictable.
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Cash flow estimates, we think, are too low and we have a buy on the stock; we think it can move higher here.
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People have gone from worrying how much they lost to worrying about how much they have left.
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I think we are headed higher over time. I think people should use any pullback as a buying opportunity.