Tom Schlesinger
Tom Schlesinger
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The yields indicate that markets aren't concerned about inflation or that they're confident that the Fed is on the job and will contain it. But there's some sort of subconscious, collective belief that sustained manageable inflation is too good to be true and eventually the other shoe will drop.
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At a basic and obvious level, it ties into gut level concern of ordinary people.
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What the long-term effect that has on the Fed as a political institution is one of those things we'll be watching closely. It's hard to tell where it is going to lead.
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I would bet anything they rue the day they got trapped into these terms like measured, patient. The signals Greenspan and others have given is that measured still the way they want to present their stance. It's now measured with a 'but,' behind it though.
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I would be nervous about picking an inflation-targeting champion as my next Fed chairman given the potential impact on employment growth.
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Certainly the Fed has voiced more concern over inflation for public consumption that it has in previous years, so it's not surprising that markets would respond accordingly. It just really doesn't jive very well with the facts on the ground.
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Bush has done a good job of using his free hand to break from a narrow group of selections in terms of background.
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More than any of his predecessors, he has gone public with every issue under the sun. I'm not sure there's a right answer, but I think it's worth talking about in a public forum what ought to be boundaries of the Fed governors' comments.
anyone breadth business came certainly community dealing experience frequently greenspan guys hear ivory job mentioned past tower
It'd be fascinating to hear what he thinks, if he'd actually tell you. The guys who are most frequently mentioned for the job are all ivory tower types. I don't think anyone has the breadth and experience dealing with the business community as Greenspan did when he came on the job. Certainly they don't have as much experience as he accumulated in the past 17 years.
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I remember thinking, man, if you think that's problematic, wait until you stick around Washington a little bit longer.
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He might try to draw a bright line in the hearing - say that he won't be drawn into commenting on issues not directly related to the Fed's responsibilities, ... We'll have to see how that plays. It is important that the Fed chairman be seen as independent.
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He's Alan Greenspan all purpose sage, ... He seldom has anyone tell him, 'Why don't you be more like Fed chairman of the past?'
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Greenspan is an orthodox thinker in most ways, but you have give him credit for questioning consensus thinking.
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He does have an academic background. He had to make things clear to undergraduate students, even if they were undergraduate students at Princeton.