Tom Schlesinger
Tom Schlesinger
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What the long-term effect that has on the Fed as a political institution is one of those things we'll be watching closely. It's hard to tell where it is going to lead.
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I would be nervous about picking an inflation-targeting champion as my next Fed chairman given the potential impact on employment growth.
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Certainly the Fed has voiced more concern over inflation for public consumption that it has in previous years, so it's not surprising that markets would respond accordingly. It just really doesn't jive very well with the facts on the ground.
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More than any of his predecessors, he has gone public with every issue under the sun. I'm not sure there's a right answer, but I think it's worth talking about in a public forum what ought to be boundaries of the Fed governors' comments.
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He might try to draw a bright line in the hearing - say that he won't be drawn into commenting on issues not directly related to the Fed's responsibilities, ... We'll have to see how that plays. It is important that the Fed chairman be seen as independent.
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He's Alan Greenspan all purpose sage, ... He seldom has anyone tell him, 'Why don't you be more like Fed chairman of the past?'
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It would be unhealthy for the Fed to get bogged down in an internal debate about the merits and demerits of inflation targeting if it prevented
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The Federal Open Market Committee does not appear from any of its official statements or from the speeches and testimony of its members, to be concerned about excessively strong labor markets or the prospect of wage inflation,
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It will come at a really interesting time because the Fed has been so much more successful in recent years than central banks in countries that favored a more rule-oriented approach. One has to wonder why the Fed would abandon the approach that has worked so well.
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The yields indicate that markets aren't concerned about inflation or that they're confident that the Fed is on the job and will contain it. But there's some sort of subconscious, collective belief that sustained manageable inflation is too good to be true and eventually the other shoe will drop.
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It's quiet clear in the infamous '92, '93, '94 period, the Fed was pretty darned determined not to open up and certainly not to disclose the fact it had these complete transcripts.
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At a basic and obvious level, it ties into gut level concern of ordinary people.
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I would bet anything they rue the day they got trapped into these terms like measured, patient. The signals Greenspan and others have given is that measured still the way they want to present their stance. It's now measured with a 'but,' behind it though.
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Bush has done a good job of using his free hand to break from a narrow group of selections in terms of background.