Tom Schlesinger
Tom Schlesinger
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It would be unhealthy for the Fed to get bogged down in an internal debate about the merits and demerits of inflation targeting if it prevented
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Certainly the Fed has voiced more concern over inflation for public consumption that it has in previous years, so it's not surprising that markets would respond accordingly. It just really doesn't jive very well with the facts on the ground.
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I would be nervous about picking an inflation-targeting champion as my next Fed chairman given the potential impact on employment growth.
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More than any of his predecessors, he has gone public with every issue under the sun. I'm not sure there's a right answer, but I think it's worth talking about in a public forum what ought to be boundaries of the Fed governors' comments.
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What the long-term effect that has on the Fed as a political institution is one of those things we'll be watching closely. It's hard to tell where it is going to lead.
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It's quiet clear in the infamous '92, '93, '94 period, the Fed was pretty darned determined not to open up and certainly not to disclose the fact it had these complete transcripts.
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It will come at a really interesting time because the Fed has been so much more successful in recent years than central banks in countries that favored a more rule-oriented approach. One has to wonder why the Fed would abandon the approach that has worked so well.
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He's Alan Greenspan all purpose sage, ... He seldom has anyone tell him, 'Why don't you be more like Fed chairman of the past?'
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He might try to draw a bright line in the hearing - say that he won't be drawn into commenting on issues not directly related to the Fed's responsibilities, ... We'll have to see how that plays. It is important that the Fed chairman be seen as independent.
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The Federal Open Market Committee does not appear from any of its official statements or from the speeches and testimony of its members, to be concerned about excessively strong labor markets or the prospect of wage inflation,
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The yields indicate that markets aren't concerned about inflation or that they're confident that the Fed is on the job and will contain it. But there's some sort of subconscious, collective belief that sustained manageable inflation is too good to be true and eventually the other shoe will drop.
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People got thrown for a loop by the stock market crash at beginning of the decade. It doesn't seem impossible that local housing bubbles bursting would have an effect on people's views of savings. Obviously consumption would take a hit if people save at the historic rate.
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At a basic and obvious level, it ties into gut level concern of ordinary people.
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It'd be fascinating to hear what he thinks, if he'd actually tell you. The guys who are most frequently mentioned for the job are all ivory tower types. I don't think anyone has the breadth and experience dealing with the business community as Greenspan did when he came on the job. Certainly they don't have as much experience as he accumulated in the past 17 years.