Tobin Gorey
Tobin Gorey
data demand economic economy energy few forecasts global iran month past points quite remaining rise supplies ways
There are quite a few ways in which supplies could be disrupted, not just from Iran itself, while the accumulation of economic data and forecasts for the global economy over the past month or so points to global energy demand remaining strong. The rise has been speedy.
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The U.S. inventory data clearly worried the market, but the Iranian and Nigerian situations are providing support to prices.
further iran
There's a sense that Iran has heated up and if it's going to come to a head, it will be further out than May.
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Ordinarily comfortable inventories would mean lower prices -- probably closer to fifty-five dollars. But the Iran situation, and several smaller actual interruptions to crude supply, are keeping prices higher.
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But if Iran withdrew, that would leave a substantial gap in the market. In any case, the oil price is likely to remain high because global demand is so strong.
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The fall in prices is modest...No one is willing to assume Iran will never use oil as a bargaining chip.
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Iran and Nigeria are providing a double disruption to the crude oil market, emphasizing that the oil market remains in no condition to play a man or more short.
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The Iran issue is the driver of the day, the extra factor causing the run-up in prices, but the basic thing underlying the industry is that global demand remains very strong.
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The Iranian issue is hanging over the market. There's a big bogey there in the form of Iran and these smaller issues that are making real impinges on supply.
coming dollar due retreat small
The small retreat is probably due to the dollar coming back a bit.
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I understand that some of the demand from fabricators has fallen away as the price has risen.
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There's unlikely to be a quick return of output, and the market is certainly pricing in all of these various geo-political threats.
flying markets money
There's still money flying into the commodities markets in general. I think the market is still bullish.
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Nigeria?s escalating problems though are boosting prices too. Nigeria puts almost 2.5 million barrels of crude into the market daily -- around 3 percent of global oil output.