Tobias Levkovich
Tobias Levkovich
along easy good year
While we think 2006 will be a good year for stocks, we do not necessarily think it will be an easy one, without hiccups along the way.
capital earnings four fourth hear leads quarter spending until
GDP leads earnings by two quarters. Earnings lead capital spending by two quarters. So GDP leads capital spending by four quarters. We shouldn't hear that things are getting better until the fourth quarter at the earliest,
caps favor fed large larger raising stopped tend
In 1995, when the Fed stopped raising rates, large caps did take the lead. We think that that's a possibility, and we tend to favor the larger caps.
cause downward drive earnings emerge equity estimate few further market momentum next powerful prices stock suspect weakness
If powerful upward earnings estimate revisions have not been able to drive equity prices higher, we suspect that downward momentum in such estimate revisions may cause further stock market weakness to emerge in the next few months.
earnings manipulate people trying
If people we're really trying to manipulate earnings you would think they would have done a better job.
across business channel cnn community currently fox headlines insight investment market news seems underlying
The investment community currently seems to be gleaning more of its market insight from the headlines scrolling across CNN and Fox news Channel than from underlying business fundamentals,
drive economy fed hard series worked
The Fed has worked too hard to reinvigorate the economy after a series of shocks, in our opinion, to drive everything back down,
close
That, in our opinion, probably suggests we're close to the bottom.
energy factors far fed held market people prices primary raising rates
The two primary factors that held up the market were the Fed raising rates ... and that energy prices were far more excitable than people had anticipated.
behind biggest bull buying factor fairly great hesitate latest seems stocks tech
Tech has been the biggest factor behind the latest bull run, so the fact that stocks are down seems fairly reasonable. I hesitate to sit back and say this a great buying opportunity.
bad bizarre equity news piece seems
It seems as if we have re-entered the bizarre world in which every piece of news must be interpreted as being bad for equity investors.
companies company good isolated sector single struggle tech
This is a company that can do well in a good economy, and do well in a so-so economy. It's not isolated to a single sector like so many of these tech companies that struggle because their sector slows down.
blows matter people safety time until
You can see the fad, and know it's just a matter of time until it blows up. When people get worried, they will want the safety of U.S. equities.