Tim Evans
Tim Evans
call hold lost market pull silver staging time week
It's staging what I would call a catch-up move. After resisting the upward pull of silver all week long, the market couldn't hold back any more and is making up for lost time here.
average barrel build early further january likely mild million readings rise stocks tendency time toward
Stocks have a tendency toward a counter-seasonal rise in early January ... but the mild readings this time around make a further 2 to 3 million barrel build more likely than the 1.1 million barrel five-year average increase.
barrels french includes less looking next oil per talking timeline
If you're talking about a 400,000 barrels per day refinery next to a French Chateau in the Loire valley, the timeline is infinite. If you're looking at an industrialized part that already includes an oil refinery, it's much less of a big deal.
perhaps short situation
The situation is not going to get better in the short term. Perhaps it will get worse.
april covering crude draw last oil short since surprise total trigger weekly
Crude oil may have been able to trigger short covering off the surprise 1.3 million-barrel draw from last week, but inventories are still at their second-highest weekly total since April 1999.
begin behind develop employed higher potential push simple strong term turn widely
Profit-taking was the most widely employed term for what (happened Friday), but we see the potential for this simple turn to develop into a much more substantial decline, as the fundamentals behind the push higher were not all that strong to begin with.
came dramatic range surprises within
Everything pretty much came within the range of expectations so there were no dramatic surprises here.
benefit capacity competition consumers
Consumers would benefit from more refinery capacity and more competition in the refinery business.
although boost chilly current expected helped northeast
Current chilly temperatures in the Northeast U.S. also helped boost prices, although these are not expected to last.
demand early february forecast persist physical warm
Warm temperatures now forecast to persist on into early February undercut physical demand for heating fuels.
achieve balance bargain bit bottom drop hunting pick selling side trying
We're really just trying to achieve a little bit of a balance between follow-through selling after Tuesday's big drop and a little bit of bargain hunting on the other side of the ring, trying to pick a bottom here.
appear conditions current electricity last similar year
From the current snapshot, (electricity) conditions look a lot more similar to last year than they appear different.
basically hit levels support
Basically we hit some support levels ... and if it can't go down, it's got to go up.
close fact holding market physical risk shortage
There is nothing close to a physical shortage going on here. Instead, what the market is holding here is a significant, and in fact growing, implied risk premium.