Tim Evans
Tim Evans
data morning quite trouble
It's having trouble getting out of its own way. Fundamentally, the CPI data from this morning was really quite mixed.
blows calming cycles data gulf hurricane last rita week
There may be more cycles of hyperventilation yet to come as Hurricane Rita blows through the Gulf of Mexico, but the DOE data for last week was a calming influence.
data expect fit model neat ought report surprising
It is a surprising report in just about all respects. But I think it is something that we have to expect in times like these that the data doesn't always fit into a neat little model of what we think ought to be happening.
best data economic importance jobs latest markets overall round spin
The markets are all doing their best spin jobs off the latest round of DOE data, but there were really no significant surprises. The overall economic importance of the data is still bearish.
perhaps short situation
The situation is not going to get better in the short term. Perhaps it will get worse.
april covering crude draw last oil short since surprise total trigger weekly
Crude oil may have been able to trigger short covering off the surprise 1.3 million-barrel draw from last week, but inventories are still at their second-highest weekly total since April 1999.
begin behind develop employed higher potential push simple strong term turn widely
Profit-taking was the most widely employed term for what (happened Friday), but we see the potential for this simple turn to develop into a much more substantial decline, as the fundamentals behind the push higher were not all that strong to begin with.
came dramatic range surprises within
Everything pretty much came within the range of expectations so there were no dramatic surprises here.
benefit capacity competition consumers
Consumers would benefit from more refinery capacity and more competition in the refinery business.
although boost chilly current expected helped northeast
Current chilly temperatures in the Northeast U.S. also helped boost prices, although these are not expected to last.
demand early february forecast persist physical warm
Warm temperatures now forecast to persist on into early February undercut physical demand for heating fuels.
achieve balance bargain bit bottom drop hunting pick selling side trying
We're really just trying to achieve a little bit of a balance between follow-through selling after Tuesday's big drop and a little bit of bargain hunting on the other side of the ring, trying to pick a bottom here.
appear conditions current electricity last similar year
From the current snapshot, (electricity) conditions look a lot more similar to last year than they appear different.
basically hit levels support
Basically we hit some support levels ... and if it can't go down, it's got to go up.