Stuart Thomson
Stuart Thomson
effect fed given hurricane interest pause raising
Given the uncertainty of the effect the hurricane may have on the economy, the Fed may take a pause in raising interest rates.
area bonds european government hike performing quarter rate second worst
European government bonds are going to be the worst performing area in the first quarter. There'll be one more rate hike in the first quarter and another in the second quarter.
believe committee cuts forced monetary november policy
We believe the Monetary Policy Committee will be forced to make two more cuts in November and February.
cut demand half next percent rates room yields
With demand still weak, there's room to cut rates in the first half of next year. That'll keep yields around 4 percent for 10-year gilts.
committee data giving hawks monetary policy proof support
This week's data is proof that the hawks in the Monetary Policy Committee are wrong, giving gilts support this week.
bullish europe higher inflation medium oil strip
Strip out higher oil prices, and Europe doesn't have an inflation problem. We're still bullish for the medium term.
economy fed forced helping indication strong until worries yields
The U.S. economy is still very strong and that's not helping worries about inflation. Until there's some indication the Fed will stop, 10-year yields will be forced upwards.
bank believe cut data investors leaves persuade weaker
U.K. data has been weaker than expected, but investors don't believe this will be enough to persuade the bank to cut rates. This leaves gilts vulnerable.
economy-and-economics good power tried
They are big on zealous regulation, but they are not good at real economics. They have the power to make micro improvements to the economy, but they haven't even tried it.
economy-and-economics good
They are big on zealous regulation, but they are not good at real economics,
demand difficult market surprising vastly
Demand is vastly outstripping supply. It's not surprising that some of the dealers are going to the DMO because it's difficult to make a market in these conditions.
confidence consumer europe good investors strength time yields
Investors are underestimating the strength of consumer confidence in Europe so yields can keep rising. This is not a good time to buy.
becomes majority member outside stepping undermines
By stepping outside the majority view, he undermines his own credibility. He just becomes another member on the committee.
attractive bonds confirm data determined economic european helping market raise rates stronger
The ECB is determined to raise rates and the stronger economic data is helping to confirm those plans. European bonds are not the most attractive market at the moment.