Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
clear growth job last months picture quite slow slower somewhat three weaker
It's clear that job growth in the last three months has been as slow as it has been in quite a while. It is a picture of a somewhat slower or weaker job market.
account active average consistent decline home housing january last months people starts three
If you take into account the revisions, the average for the last three months are still very strong. It's consistent with the housing starts number. People are still active in home buying. This decline in January is probably a month dip. It's a head-fake.
confident economy half impact momentum months solid three wondering
The economy is regaining momentum and will have a very solid first half of the year. We all feel more confident than we did three months ago, when we were still wondering about the impact of the hurricanes.
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The stock and bond markets are looking at the report and seeing the signs of strength, and they know the Fed is doing the same.
building markets
There will be some uncertainty in the markets building up at the end of the year. There will be some jitters.
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The results show a stable outlook among business owners for their own sales and profits during the next six months, which suggests they are adapting to higher energy prices and interest rates. Many, however, are taking aggressive steps to counter continued increases in costs for employees' health care coverage, which could mean reductions in benefits for some employees.
keeping wages
People's wages are going up, but they are not keeping up with inflation.
bit comfort core drew people
People drew some comfort in the smaller-than-expected core index, but I think the core is a bit deceptive.
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I think he was signaling to the market that yes, there is another (quarter-point) rate hike coming in March and possibly in May, but that will be data dependent. He essentially confirmed what the market has already been pricing in, in terms of rate hikes.
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While energy prices are a major concern and price pressures are in the factory pipeline, business is still quite good.
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I thought it was a very favorable number for both Wall Street and Main Street, particularly paired with the upward revisions to the previous two months.
economic expected great growth helping inflation less strong
Growth is stronger, but inflation is less, so it's still that great combination of strong economic growth with even less inflation than expected that's helping bonds.
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If we hadn't had Katrina we'd be saying what a bad hurricane (Rita) was, but in the aftermath of Katrina we're saying, 'Boy, aren't we lucky,'
businesses capital economy faster growing internal mergers turn
When the economy is growing faster and businesses want to replenish inventories and make the kind of capital expenditures, mergers and acquisitions that outstrip their internal financing, then they will turn to banks.