Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
both favorable main number previous street wall
I thought it was a very favorable number for both Wall Street and Main Street, particularly paired with the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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This is a very weak number and well below what everyone expected. It's not the kind of report the Fed likes to see, but I think they'll recognize that the economy is already rebounding and raise the federal funds target rate to 4.5 percent.
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An unemployment rate below 5 percent is a sign that the job market is getting tight. These kinds of job and wage numbers will keep consumers spending right into spring.
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I think the Fed will look at the core number and determine that it was understated, and still raise rates by a quarter-percentage point at the meeting on November 1.
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These are exactly the kinds of things the Fed likes too see. Signs of a slowing in housing and still-contained inflation are the kinds of numbers that speak to the Fed stopping in May, making that their last rate hike.
bond fed looking markets report seeing signs stock strength
The stock and bond markets are looking at the report and seeing the signs of strength, and they know the Fed is doing the same.
building markets
There will be some uncertainty in the markets building up at the end of the year. There will be some jitters.
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The results show a stable outlook among business owners for their own sales and profits during the next six months, which suggests they are adapting to higher energy prices and interest rates. Many, however, are taking aggressive steps to counter continued increases in costs for employees' health care coverage, which could mean reductions in benefits for some employees.
keeping wages
People's wages are going up, but they are not keeping up with inflation.
bit comfort core drew people
People drew some comfort in the smaller-than-expected core index, but I think the core is a bit deceptive.
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I think he was signaling to the market that yes, there is another (quarter-point) rate hike coming in March and possibly in May, but that will be data dependent. He essentially confirmed what the market has already been pricing in, in terms of rate hikes.
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While energy prices are a major concern and price pressures are in the factory pipeline, business is still quite good.
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Growth is stronger, but inflation is less, so it's still that great combination of strong economic growth with even less inflation than expected that's helping bonds.
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If we hadn't had Katrina we'd be saying what a bad hurricane (Rita) was, but in the aftermath of Katrina we're saying, 'Boy, aren't we lucky,'