Steven Wood
Steven Wood
Steven Woodwas an Australian sprint canoeist and marathon canoeist who competed in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Competing in two Summer Olympics, he won a bronze medal in the K-4 1000 m event at Barcelona in 1992...
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Productivity has slowed during the past year because output has fallen more quickly than employment and hours have been trimmed.
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Retail sales have slowed over the last six months in response to the slower pace of job creation, higher rates, and increased volatility in the stock market. Indeed, in the past two years there has been tight relationship between the Nasdaq and retail spending, suggesting further spending weakness in coming months.
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Momentum in the leading indicators has slowed over the past year, suggesting an impending slowdown in economic growth.
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Although the level of sales is still relatively high, the solid growth of the past three years has been arrested, helping the Fed's efforts to slow the pace of economic growth. However, mortgage rates have declined over the last six weeks, so further substantial weakness may not be forthcoming.
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Although the (Fed) will not be pleased with the sharp decline in productivity growth over the past year, they will view it as a cyclical phenomenon rather than a retreat from the productivity-led expansion of the past 5 years.
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Although mortgage rates have declined over the past three weeks, mortgage applications volumes have continued to fall. This is partially due to the flat yield curve and partially due to tighter lending standards by financial institutions.
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Despite some better-than-expected data over the past two weeks, this report is sufficiently gloomy to force the Fed to ease next Tuesday and retain their bias toward further economic weakness.
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Huge swings in energy and motor vehicle prices have masked a sharp retreat in core producer inflation over the past 6 months.
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Housing fundamentals are deteriorating. Mortgage rates have been flat since the beginning of the year. Job creation and income growth has slowed. Equity markets have plunged over the past year. And consumer confidence has tumbled. Moreover, mortgage applications have trailed off. All of these suggest that home sales should weaken over the next several months.
beginning confidence consumer creation equity flat growth home housing income job markets mortgage next past rates sales several since suggest
Housing fundamentals are deteriorating, ... Mortgage rates have been flat since the beginning of the year. Job creation and income growth has slowed. Equity markets have plunged over the past year. And consumer confidence has tumbled. Moreover, mortgage applications have trailed off. All of these suggest that home sales should weaken over the next several months.
economic federal growth housing largely negative neutral next passed past peak several welcomed
Housing activity, which has contributed significantly to economic growth over the past 2-1/2 years, has now passed its peak and will be largely neutral to negative over the next several quarters, ... This slowdown will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.
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In the past year, ... the number of people receiving state benefits has increased by more than a million. Although the pace of layoffs has eased, job creation remains nonexistent.
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The general slowing in the growth of the leading indicators over the past year suggests the pace of economic growth should gradually slow over the next three to six to nine months.
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The leading indicators have been much more volatile since Hurricane Katrina. However, the trend has been generally flat over the past six months, at levels that are well below where they were 12 to 18 months ago.