Sam Stovall
Sam Stovall
allow bull correction digestion gains maintain markets order percent require
Many say this much-needed digestion of gains is long overdue, as bull markets typically require a correction of more than 10 percent in order to allow the bull to maintain its upward tendencies.
above appears barrel below elevated equity foremost level market minds per price represents retreats sigh
Foremost on investors' minds is the elevated price of oil. It appears to us that the $40 per barrel level represents a 'line in the sand' above which the equity market retreats and below which the market breathes a sigh of relief.
begin cut died exposure far knowing note obituary percent raise reading stock
As far as the Merrill Lynch note is concerned, it's like reading an obituary that someone had died without knowing that they were still alive. Merrill cut its stock exposure to 45 percent, but why was it at 50 percent to begin with? That should raise some concerns.
bad coming fourth history looking october percent quarter rises
On average, coming out of a bad September, October rises 5 percent and the fourth quarter rises 4 percent overall. So if you use history as a guide, we're looking for a bounce.
earnings forecast growth near percent
The forecast from S&P is near 18 percent growth in earnings in 1997 over 1996,
companies good industries investors neighbors prospects recovering
We think investors should own companies like Wal-Mart, like Alberto-Culver and Neighbors Industries because they have good fundamental prospects in a recovering economy,
actual quality rotation
The rotation has more to do with defensiveness and dividend yield, than with the actual quality of the investments themselves.
based expected reports retail sales strong
These reports are expected to be pretty strong based on July's retail sales figures.
adopted approach care consumer defensive either found health investor market november returns worth
An investor who was long the market from November to April, but then adopted a defensive approach by rotating into either the S&P Consumer Staples or Health Care sectors during May through October, would have found ... that the returns were well worth the effort.
both couple economy-and-economics group involved next sensitive situation sort turnaround
Both are involved in a sort of a turnaround situation with the economically sensitive group and I think at least, over the next couple of months, they'll do well,
aggressive bad basically believe bouncing condition deeply earnings easing fed industries interest last likely lower market policy rate remain result sensitive ten top tread water year
Basically the top ten industries were those that are economically sensitive and are bouncing back from their deeply oversold condition last year as a result of lower interest rates. We do believe the Fed will remain aggressive with its easing interest rate policy but we feel the earnings are going to be pretty bad for the first quarter, so the market is likely to tread water for awhile.
although clearly regard today woods
I would regard today as positive, although we're clearly not out of the woods yet.
likely
If they don't do it tomorrow, they will likely do it in January.
bit fed interest investors meet next possibly profit raise taking week
Possibly we could see a little bit of profit taking because investors had been anticipating that when the Fed does meet next week that they won't raise interest rates,