Sam Stovall
Sam Stovall
cancel good investors month news rally reason temper
The month of May was a counter-trend rally where investors used good news as a reason to temper their bearishness and cancel out short-selling contracts.
beaten best christmas december four horrible market months past retailers says season year
December is one of the best months of the year for retailers. Of the past four years, retailers have beaten the market. Typically, everyone says the Christmas season is going to be horrible and they don't want to be in retailers, only to see December do very well for the market and even better for retailers.
digest gains move order
You need to digest some of those gains in order to move higher.
based expected reports retail sales strong
These reports are expected to be pretty strong based on July's retail sales figures.
likely
If they don't do it tomorrow, they will likely do it in January.
aggressive bad basically believe bouncing condition deeply earnings easing fed industries interest last likely lower market policy rate remain result sensitive ten top tread water year
Basically the top ten industries were those that are economically sensitive and are bouncing back from their deeply oversold condition last year as a result of lower interest rates. We do believe the Fed will remain aggressive with its easing interest rate policy but we feel the earnings are going to be pretty bad for the first quarter, so the market is likely to tread water for awhile.
bit fed interest investors meet next possibly profit raise taking week
Possibly we could see a little bit of profit taking because investors had been anticipating that when the Fed does meet next week that they won't raise interest rates,
although clearly regard today woods
I would regard today as positive, although we're clearly not out of the woods yet.
allow bull correction digestion gains maintain markets order percent require
Many say this much-needed digestion of gains is long overdue, as bull markets typically require a correction of more than 10 percent in order to allow the bull to maintain its upward tendencies.
above appears barrel below elevated equity foremost level market minds per price represents retreats sigh
Foremost on investors' minds is the elevated price of oil. It appears to us that the $40 per barrel level represents a 'line in the sand' above which the equity market retreats and below which the market breathes a sigh of relief.
change demand difference economy expanding expensive experience families industry less market passed rising whether
It's an industry that does not experience a change in demand whether the economy is expanding or contracting, or whether the market is rising or falling. When you die, you die. The only difference could be the families of the one who passed away, if times are tough, could opt for a less expensive funeral.
advances goes market months price renewal setting
There's a lot more uncertainty now, ... And we've had 18 months of price advances -- that could just be setting us up for a renewal of the defensiveness the market goes through during the May-Oct. period.
believe carrying earning group money positive recently reported shown strong third towards wireless
They recently reported earning where they'd shown that revenues were not as strong as had been anticipated; a lot of that money still comes from your traditional long-distance carrying revenues. However, we like the group longer-term because we believe that, particularly for MCI, they're gravitating more towards the cellular and wireless category, which is the third group in telecom, and that one actually is in a positive camp.
earlier expect investors last looking month next week
That really spooked investors last month and this week they'll be looking for earlier numbers, like the PPI, to see if there isn't anything they can glean on what to expect from the next CPI report.