Sam Stovall
Sam Stovall
aggressive bad basically believe bouncing condition deeply earnings easing fed industries interest last likely lower market policy rate remain result sensitive ten top tread water year
Basically the top ten industries were those that are economically sensitive and are bouncing back from their deeply oversold condition last year as a result of lower interest rates. We do believe the Fed will remain aggressive with its easing interest rate policy but we feel the earnings are going to be pretty bad for the first quarter, so the market is likely to tread water for awhile.
anticipate concerned difficult earnings events interest investors rates third trio weak
While it is difficult to anticipate unanticipated events, investors could become increasingly concerned about oil, earnings and interest rates -- the trio of trepidation -- in the traditionally weak third quarter.
approach cautious companies earnings high investors larger quality surprised toward
We would not be surprised to see investors take a more cautious approach by gravitating toward larger companies with high S&P earnings and dividend quality ranks.
believe carrying earning group money positive recently reported shown strong third towards wireless
They recently reported earning where they'd shown that revenues were not as strong as had been anticipated; a lot of that money still comes from your traditional long-distance carrying revenues. However, we like the group longer-term because we believe that, particularly for MCI, they're gravitating more towards the cellular and wireless category, which is the third group in telecom, and that one actually is in a positive camp.
additional continue earnings economic fed fuel investors likely lower negative numbers rates whatever
Investors are going to look at whatever economic numbers come out and say is this additional fuel for the Fed to lower rates in March. Earnings are going to continue to come out and they're likely to be negative so you're going to have earnings weighing on the market.
earnings forecast growth near percent
The forecast from S&P is near 18 percent growth in earnings in 1997 over 1996,
earnings guidance market reasons work
The market has been in an irritable mood. If earnings and guidance are good, and there are no reasons to sell, then things should work out OK.
companies good industries investors neighbors prospects recovering
We think investors should own companies like Wal-Mart, like Alberto-Culver and Neighbors Industries because they have good fundamental prospects in a recovering economy,
actual quality rotation
The rotation has more to do with defensiveness and dividend yield, than with the actual quality of the investments themselves.
based expected reports retail sales strong
These reports are expected to be pretty strong based on July's retail sales figures.
adopted approach care consumer defensive either found health investor market november returns worth
An investor who was long the market from November to April, but then adopted a defensive approach by rotating into either the S&P Consumer Staples or Health Care sectors during May through October, would have found ... that the returns were well worth the effort.
both couple economy-and-economics group involved next sensitive situation sort turnaround
Both are involved in a sort of a turnaround situation with the economically sensitive group and I think at least, over the next couple of months, they'll do well,
although clearly regard today woods
I would regard today as positive, although we're clearly not out of the woods yet.
likely
If they don't do it tomorrow, they will likely do it in January.