Ron Hill
Ron Hill
Ronald "Ron" Hill MBEis an English runner and clothing entrepreneur. He was the second man to break 2:10 in the marathon; he set world records at four other distances, but never laid claim to the marathon world record. He has run two Olympic Marathons, and has a personal marathon record of 2:09:28. In 1970, Hill won the 74th Boston Marathon in a course record 2:10:30. He also won gold medals for the marathon at the European Championships in 1969 and...
ProfessionRunner
Date of Birth25 September 1938
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We're focusing much too much on what's moving, which at the margin are the kind of that are negative for stocks and forgetting what's really crucial here. The fact is we are in an excess supply of money relative to the needs of the economy and corporate earnings growth will in fact be quite good in the third quarter.
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The key thing here is, we're sort of short on liquidity, so we don't have enough money to raise everything. Investors have to focus on good sectors with leading stocks especially with good earnings revision profiles, and where there's support for rising profit and expectations going forward,
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I think next year is going to be a reasonably good year. When the Fed starts lowering rates, even though profit growth will be really poor, often some of the best gains in stocks come when earnings are doing poorly, because you're getting a lift from price-to-earnings ratios rising.
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The bank stocks are affected by what the Fed does. If the Fed's going to be pushing rates up aggressively, it's going to hard for bank stocks to significantly do better than the market, ... But I think some of the stocks are cheap enough that they're worth at least nibbling on at this point.
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Take a look at Philip Morris ( MO ), ... I think this stock is going to survive pretty nicely.
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They have not been attractive stocks to own this year because they've had trouble growing revenues, ... But now, all of a sudden, that nice steady growth in earnings -- coupled with the fact that because of the weaker dollar, their translated earnings from international sales are going to be much stronger -- (means) these companies are looking very attractive.
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The markets continue to mark time. Every day we get worries about inflationary pressures and interest rate pressures. Stocks have a hard time rising, but the reasons to rise are still coming through with strong earnings gains.
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We also like some of the others from the cyclical areas like in the industrials, some of the freight companies like FedEx and ... also in the consumer discretionary, automobiles still look like they're good, ... Traditionally they will outperform until the Fed begins to raise interest rates and Mr. Greenspan has postponed that for a few months. That gives companies like General Motors a little bit longer to run.
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You have more choices on defensive linemen for the 3-4, ... There's such a premium on 6-5, 285-pound defensive ends and defensive tackles. It's hard to find those guys. You don't have to find big, big guys in that defense because it's all movement. There's more movement than toe-to-toe stuff. You can be more flexible with their movement.
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Everything's playing into the idea that the stress in the economy is beginning to ease. The Fed will take that bias away from inflation and make their risk assessment more balanced between inflation and growth. I think in all of the major indexes the bottoms have sort of been made here in October, and now we're ready to advance. I don't think it's a huge advance...trends are definitely in the investors' favor.
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We've been raising rates in this country since about June of last year, so we've had over a year's worth of rate increases starting to flow into the market. That has slowly, but surely, drained liquidity out of the overall financial system in America. So money supply growth has been below nominal GDP growth now for a number of months. So what's happening is slowly, but surely, there's just not enough money out there available to make everything go up all at the same time. So that's why rallies fail sooner than you expect, and why you know people get punished more for bad news than they get rewarded for good news,
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We've had one preliminary move in technology, which was an anticipation of (Computer Associates') earnings, the second move is once the earnings have turned and begin to run ahead of the rest of the markets,
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I'd be surprised if we don't get him fixed up.
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On November 15, I think they take the bias off,