Robert MacIntosh
Robert MacIntosh
Sir Robert Reynolds Macintoshwas a New Zealand-born anaesthetist. He was the first professor of anaesthetics outside the United States...
beginning economy fed inflation job until worries
The Fed will be more upbeat, but there's still a long way to go before they make any move. This economy is just beginning to really grow. Until we get real job creation, there will be no inflation worries -- and we're not there yet.
chance gone instead maybe odds percent predicting
I'm not predicting a double-dip recession, but the odds of it have gone up. Instead of 5 percent, there's maybe a 15 or 20 percent chance of it now.
acceptable bond cash earnings equity far flows investors normal
Banks, bond investors and equity investors will ratchet down their idea of what's normal and acceptable as far as earnings and cash flows go,
guess hearing worried worries
I've been hearing worries about it for years, but I guess I'm not worried yet,
closer creation effect fed housing next slow wealth
This is what the Fed wants, they want housing to slow -- that is the place where they can most effect wealth creation and spending. The Fed is that much closer to being done. I think they are done after next week.
bonds fed good helps inflation lack less likely low maybe news overall people power pricing raise stocks
This is very good news from an inflation standpoint. I think it helps bonds because low inflation is good for bonds. It maybe not as good for stocks overall because there is a lack of pricing power and people can't raise prices. It will make the Fed less likely to raise rates.
clearly darn growth higher interpret market number rational talking trend
The number was a little higher than expected. I think the market will like it, but we are still talking about no growth here, and the trend is clearly down. The market is going to interpret this at first favorably, but a more rational interpretation is that it is pretty darn weak.
again companies confident economy existing function grinding hire ramp running wanting
That's a function of companies wanting to feel confident that the economy is up and running again before they hire back. If they do want to ramp up activities, they do it by grinding more out of existing people.
themselves
They wanted to give themselves some flexibility, which they didn't have with that language.
hit people
It's not pretty. A lot of things just hit people today.
fall hard
It's hard to fall any more if you're already on the ground,
bias bit change cutting early maybe meeting next risk suspect
It's probably a bit early to change the bias to neutral. I suspect they'll say there's still more risk of another downturn than there is for too much of an upturn. Maybe the next meeting is when you have them take away the cutting bias.
chance either factories means numbers pay producing sales
This is one of those numbers that can kind of go either way. It means factories are producing more than they would have been, but if sales don't show up, then they have to pay it back. There's always the chance that doesn't happen.