Robert Froehlich
Robert Froehlich
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I think what's happening is exactly what the Federal Reserve Board wanted to happen. They wanted to change their bias from neutral to tightening to slow down the markets - and that is what's happening today.
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The Federal Reserve does not want to have to raise interest rates. The next best thing is to have the market do it for them and that's exactly what happened.
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There was a concern that capacity utilization would be a little higher because the auto production has really been up a lot and there was concern that number would spook the market.
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The predicament that we're in with our economy is the mistake the Fed made two years ago. I believe they know they made a mistake, and they have to give it back to us.
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When you get these top-line blockbuster deals, they will guarantee that we will have future deals coming as a result of this, and so I'm telling you the landscape will change as a result of this.
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I think the key is going to be earnings now. We're really getting into full swing with earnings, and I think earnings are going to surprise on the high side.
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I think that the next move with interest rates is going to be up and, quite frankly, ... the numbers we saw this morning were stronger than expectations and so we see that the consumer is not slowing down at all and you have the bond market a little on the edge.
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I think we're going to be looking to the bluest of the blue chips. This is going to be an important week for the stock market, and I think most of the surprises are going to be on the high side.
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I think we could be in for some very rough sledding over the next day or two.
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I think what's happening is we're having a struggle between very strong earnings (and) the counterbalancing force is the concern of rising interest rates, and so it's the fight between those two things that I think is keeping pressure on the market.
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I think the REIT market is a nice way to play the real-estate market. One of the reasons (REITS have) become popular in the mutual-fund segment is that they give you a great way to diversify real-estate holdings across a much larger spectrum than you could get if you individually invest in real estate.
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The Fed was concerned with the valuation of the stock market when it was 6,200. Now it's at 7,600. And so I think some of those signs may be signs of what would cause the wealth effect and what would cause future inflation. I think that's why they may look at raising them.
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The events that are driving the market are not the events that we're used to. It's not going to be driven by any earnings report, certainly not going to be driven by economic releases. It's really going to be driven by the events going on around the globe, both what's happening in Asia, what's happening in Latin America and so that's going to portend to a lot of volatility in the stock market in the fourth quarter.
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The markets lead Washington. Washington doesn't lead the markets.