Robert DiClemente
Robert DiClemente
anecdotal colder depressed early evidence june looks might mistake retailers sales shows sign view wave ways weather
This to me looks more like what retailers had said, that colder weather in May might have depressed sales in ways that are not really fundamental, ... Early anecdotal evidence for June shows a snap-back. It would be a big mistake to view this as a sign of a new wave of retrenchment.
alter chances faster fuel inflation prospect recovery remain
True, the fuel for faster recovery is amassing. But that prospect does not materially alter chances that inflation will also remain well anchored.
based corporate earnings financial focused gloom labor latest markets missing necessary restore risk third turnaround
While financial markets are focused on all the gloom ... they risk missing the incipient turnaround in corporate profits. Based on the latest GDP figures, corporate earnings probably bottomed in the third quarter. Firms are making the necessary adjustments to restore profitability by reining in their costs, especially labor compensation.
beyond cannot higher inflation move officials possible rule tangible
With higher inflation still a tangible threat, officials cannot rule out the possible need to move beyond neutral.
alive cannot chances cut fed further keeping rate ruled
With surging productivity keeping alive chances of further disinflation, even another Fed rate cut cannot be ruled out,
above aggregate conditions continued demand estimates financial highly interest low maintain makers period policy potential propel rates reasonable
Under these conditions, policy makers will want to maintain a continued period of very low interest rates and highly accommodative financial conditions to propel aggregate demand well above the upper end of reasonable estimates of potential growth,
against economy-and-economics effects expect fighting interest rates rising seems side strong waste
Fighting against rising interest rates just seems a waste of time. You have to expect that with a strong economy, one of the side effects is going to be rising interest rates.
afford domestic err external fed growth inflation labor low markets side
With labor markets eroding rapidly, external growth faltering badly, and domestic inflation low and falling, the Fed can afford to err on the side of accommodation.
budgets changes corrected growth jarring local policy rates rather relative small spending state tax
State and local budgets can be corrected by small changes in the relative growth rates of spending and tax revenues, rather than by jarring policy initiatives.
against potent price sharp stable underlying
Stable long-term expectations are a potent headwind against a sharp acceleration in underlying price trends,
anchor explicit fed financial inflation markets mechanism sees target
He sees an explicit medium-term inflation target as an anchor for financial markets and a mechanism for Fed accountability.
bond catch continues guard market viewed
The sell-off in the US bond market continues to catch many market participants off guard but has to be viewed as a stabilization in the (economic) outlook.
energy negative period prices recall
I don't recall a period where we had this kind of a surge in energy prices and didn't have some kind of negative fall-out.
fate hinges severity
The severity of the downturn still hinges on the fate of consumers.