Qu Hongbin
Qu Hongbin
absorb bolster china continuing exports improve labor living means production rural surplus viable
There's only one conclusion: Continuing to bolster labor-intensive production and exports is the only viable means for China to absorb its surplus labor and improve rural living standards.
blossoming depend economy exports external factors flower growth hidden main next question single various whether
There are various hidden uncertainties if we look at the main growth engines. Exports depend on external factors and it will be a big question as to whether China's exports can be a single flower blossoming if the world economy slows next year.
chinese demand driven exchange exports external largely perform rather
How Chinese exports perform is largely driven by external demand rather than the exchange rate,
expect fixed growth investment last percent slow year
We expect growth in fixed investment to slow from 27 percent last year to 15 percent in 2004 and around 10 percent in 2005,
demand global impact likely material next together
This slowdown, together with new capacity, is likely to have a material impact on global demand for commodities over the next two years,
caution chinese largely pick reflection therefore year
We need to read this with caution, this is largely a reflection of the Chinese New Year distortion, therefore we should not see it as a pick up in inflation.
china evidence given growth investment needs shifting toward
Given the evidence of deteriorating investment efficiency, China needs to rebalance its growth by shifting away from investment toward consumption.
china fact labor magnitude matter million people plenty point rural simply supply surplus talking
Simply because as a matter of fact China still has plenty of rural surplus laborers and people are talking about a magnitude of more than 200 million - so you know from national-wide point of view, there is plenty of labor supply there.
economy export far growth people performed stronger
China's economy has so far performed better than people had expected. Export growth is also stronger than expected.
campaign create government jobs ongoing reduce rural service
The government should create more jobs in the manufacturing and service sectors as part of it ongoing campaign to reduce the country's rural population.
burden confidence government healthcare pensions spend
The government has to spend more on education, healthcare and pensions to take the burden off individuals and give them more confidence to spend.
chinese discount line number people roughly year
It's roughly in line with what people expected, and if you discount the Chinese New Year effect, the number would probably not look so high.
china excuse starting task
It's a challenging task but that shouldn't be an excuse for China not starting on it right now.
domestic key personal shore
The key to bolstering domestic consumption is to shore up citizens' personal incomes.