Phil Flynn
Phil Flynn
Philip "Phil" Flynnis an Irish businessman. He was previously a vice-president of Sinn Féin, a trade unionist, an industrial relations consultant, a government advisor and a financier. He was the eldest of five children of a nationalist mother and Fine Gael father...
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With less than 2.0 million barrels of spare production capacity, even with higher-than-average supply of oil, the margin of error in the world oil market has never been thinner. And with worries about possible supply disruptions in Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and another hurricane season ahead of us, traders are betting that it's likely something is going to go wrong.
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Even though the forecasts are turning colder, traders are already thinking about spring. The market is saying we think the winter is pretty much over given the supplies that we have.
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I believe the market is a lot closer to a bottom than to a top. I doubt you'll see the market fall too far.
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It seems like every storm we get, the market gets more sensitive to it.
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The oil market once again has been pulled out of potential obscurity by another host of geo-political events.
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If you knock out two to three refineries with a category 4 or a category 5, and you hit them head on, you'll feel the impact immediately, and it would a while before the markets calm down. The impact of this could be worse than Katrina in terms of shutting down refineries.
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The correlation between high oil prices and stocks has not been day-to-day. Sometimes the stock markets can ignore high prices, and the big debate is when will the prices get so high that they hurt the economy.
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Analysts are already looking ahead to next week and betting on warmer forecasts. If it doesn't get as warm as we expect then next week the market will run back up.
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The market thought that, with extremely warm temperatures in the Northeast and refiners pumping near capacity, heating oil supplies would go through the roof,
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The market is uncertain as to what it wants to do at this point. Supply is not the issue. The uncertainty about Iran is the issue.
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The market has been spooked by warm weather.
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The market is showing you that there is still a bullish undertow despite the fact that crude inventories are solid,
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The Saudis vowed that production would be left unchanged despite the calls to cut production by the likes of Iran.
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The strength in gasoline is supporting crude oil. It is a little early to be concerned about gasoline, but supplies have continued to trail year-ago levels week after week. Supplies are tight even with the high production rate and imports.