Peter Greene
Peter Greene
Peter Greeneis an American character actor, generally known for playing villains. Peter lives in New York...
ProfessionMovie Actor
Date of Birth8 October 1965
CityMontclair, NJ
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The 2003 rally was on low interest rates and a weak dollar. Now, that's changed. The dollar bottomed in February, and I think people are realizing what higher rates are going to mean for the stock market.
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Greenspan's comments are obviously a big turnaround from what he said last year. But the bond market is usually ahead of the Fed about interest rates, and it has priced in a rise.
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If new job creation is above 200,000 tomorrow, that would be viewed as very positive, but on the other hand, if the number is too high, that could create fears of an interest rate hike of 50 basis points, rather than the 25 the market is currently expecting.
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Interest rate fears are fully discounted now, which is why bonds are up today. That's why stocks are bouncing, why the utilities are rallying, regional bank groups are rallying. But I don't think the market is going to have much more lift here.
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Interest rate fears are fully discounted now, which is why bonds are up today, ... That's why stocks are bouncing, why the utilities are rallying, regional bank groups are rallying. But I don't think the market is going to have much more lift here.
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The dollar's strength and the bond market's weakness right now is changing the way people are seeing things, ... It's telling us that interest rates are likely to rise and that commodity prices are likely to come down.
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We're seeing some typical selling after a sharp run-up. People are buying the safe names, like Philip Morris (MO: Research, Estimates) and Coca-Cola (KO: Research, Estimates), and selling anything that seems suspicious.
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We're seeing some typical selling after a sharp run-up, ... People are buying the safe names, like Philip Morris (MO: Research, Estimates) and Coca-Cola (KO: Research, Estimates), and selling anything that seems suspicious.
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I think traders are quick to take profits right now, because what else is there that stocks can do for an encore in the short term? We're still in an uptrend, but the probability right now, from a technical standpoint, is that we're going to have a little more selling.
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People have been talking for some time about large-cap stocks, and that's where the money is going today. They want to be in more secure companies that are going to benefit from global expansion.
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My opinion is it's only natural for the Nasdaq composite to undergo some profit taking after a 30-plus percent advance in two months. Also, many groups that have been very strong -- like the semiconductor group, the drug group -- these are up against relative strength resistance. So it stands to reason that they're going to be profit taking,
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Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world, so when its shares are seeing that kind of surge, it's going to spill over into all kinds of other companies.
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People are comforted by Intel, but it's unsurprising that they had a good quarter, so you're seeing a little sell on the news, ... Market events get discounted more and more these days, and I think you're especially seeing that as we get into this period of digesting the earnings news.
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It's pretty mixed today (Friday) with light volume. The warning from Honeywell is very discouraging, as is the sentiment number, but then the retail sales number was fine, so that may be giving us a little buoyancy. We're also still worrying about Iraq.