Peter Greene
Peter Greene
Peter Greeneis an American character actor, generally known for playing villains. Peter lives in New York...
ProfessionMovie Actor
Date of Birth8 October 1965
CityMontclair, NJ
america assets decline dollar economic hold impacts incentive investors iraq less north people stand stronger
When the dollar declines, there's less incentive for international investors to hold U.S. companies' assets because they decline in value. It also impacts perception. People want to see a stronger dollar to show America can stand on its own, particularly when there is all this uncertainty about North Korea, Iraq and Bush's new economic team.
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What's happening today is very telling of where the market is right now. Typically, when there is negative news people tend to make 'flight-to-safety' moves into bonds and gold, but that isn't happening. That tells me that asset classes in the near term are very tired, and that we could see more of a pull back from here over the next few months.
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War news is having a fingernail-biting impact generally. Right now, there's a sense of people not wanting to do much until the troops get to Baghdad, which could happen in the next day or two. But there's also the hope of some sort of diplomatic resolution before this situation becomes a runaway train. I don't think either side wants to see this prolonged.
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Right now it looks pretty benign, with people selling a little after the retail sales numbers. Long-term I'm bullish, but I'm getting concerned in the short-term as to what is going to sustain the psychology if the economy doesn't start to show more of a pick-up.
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People have been talking for some time about large-cap stocks, and that's where the money is going today. They want to be in more secure companies that are going to benefit from global expansion.
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The 2003 rally was on low interest rates and a weak dollar. Now, that's changed. The dollar bottomed in February, and I think people are realizing what higher rates are going to mean for the stock market.
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People are comforted by Intel, but it's unsurprising that they had a good quarter, so you're seeing a little sell on the news, ... Market events get discounted more and more these days, and I think you're especially seeing that as we get into this period of digesting the earnings news.
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We're seeing some typical selling after a sharp run-up. People are buying the safe names, like Philip Morris (MO: Research, Estimates) and Coca-Cola (KO: Research, Estimates), and selling anything that seems suspicious.
buying morris people philip safe seeing seems selling sharp typical
We're seeing some typical selling after a sharp run-up, ... People are buying the safe names, like Philip Morris (MO: Research, Estimates) and Coca-Cola (KO: Research, Estimates), and selling anything that seems suspicious.
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The question is, how seriously do we take what's going on today, considering the volume, and what's going to happen next week when people come back? ... I would take today as a positive with the caveat that not many people are here.
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The stock market is a discounting mechanism. Many people recently have seen their mortgages raised -- and many people have adjustable rate mortgages -- unfortunately they have been raised. Oil prices are at near highs. It impacts people's discretionary income. And I think we're seeing it in those stocks that would have a relationship to that discretionary income.
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The sentiment is changing. Airlines are bottoming, the 10-year note yield has bottomed, making it more attractive to be in stocks, and people are feeling more comfortable,
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As it stands, you have a continuation of some people wanting to take profits after the run this year. If the market is up this week, it's going to be muted.
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There's big fear. People are selling because they don't know what's going to happen. The news out of the BBC this morning that Iraq is getting ready for chemical warfare is a big part of it.