Paul Nolte
Paul Nolte
competition energy higher prices providing rise struggling
We're struggling with higher energy prices and also the rise in bonds, which is providing some competition for stocks.
difference diplomatic east japanese less markets middle oil prices stellar week
What a difference a week makes, from improprieties in the Japanese markets to still-higher oil prices amid diplomatic rumblings in the Middle East to less than stellar earnings.
analysis bond came debating energy federal heading hikes looking moderation next prices residual seeing
We're getting a moderation in bond yields, and energy prices came down today. We're looking at things more favorably than this morning. There's still residual analysis about the Federal Reserve, and we're seeing some gamesmanship heading into next week's meeting, debating how more hikes we have.
overall paid prices
Overall it doesn't look too bad. The prices paid is a concern. We'd like to see it come down a little. It's an inflationary key.
destroy greenspan june last legacy months next price raised rates secure six stability tenure wake year
Greenspan is not going to wake up in June of next year and say 'I should have really raised rates more aggressively.' His legacy of price stability is pretty secure so I don't think the last six months of his tenure will destroy it for him.
directly economy energy higher impact prices reason report service services
The ISM report did have a big impact on the markets, and part of the reason is that the economy is now more of a service economy. And services are going to be much more directly and more immediately impacted by the higher energy prices we have seen.
difference favor margin means numbers pass pressures price rest struggling
If you look at the difference between PPI and CPI, the numbers have been in favor of PPI. What that means is that corporations are still struggling to pass through price hikes. We should see margin pressures on corporations through the rest of the year.
fed market meeting mixed negative net news next oracle positive price producer sitting watching
You've got some positive news on oil, some negative news on Oracle and some mixed news from the producer price index. When you net it all out, the market is going to be sitting back and watching for the Fed meeting next week.
crazy expensive
We went from being expensive 10 years ago to crazy expensive, and now we're back to just expensive.
companies earnings enthusiasm expect few good pounding saying table terrific wild
Few companies are pounding the table and saying things are terrific so there's not the wild enthusiasm you would expect with a good earnings season,
context declining percent rally within
We could see a 3 to 5 percent rally and still be within the context of a declining market,
couple interested investors last selling strong telling trend volume weak
We have strong volume on down days, and weak volume on up days. That's the trend for the last couple weeks. That's telling that investors are more interested in selling than they are buying.
attention economic paying phenomenon worth
But that's more of a short-term phenomenon than anything worth paying a lot of attention to, ... it's going to come down to better economic numbers.
erosion expect gradual movement sharp stocks
I don't expect to see a sharp movement in stocks -- it will be a gradual erosion over time.