Paul Nolte
Paul Nolte
economy figuring growth investors reasonable seeing strength translate
We're still seeing reasonable growth in the economy ... and investors are figuring this is going to translate into strength in earnings.
bond certainly competition good providing risks
We're still absorbing a lot of things. The risks right now are certainly still with the bond market. It's providing some good competition for stocks.
environment fact happens matter
We still like the fact that we're in an environment where no matter what happens in the economy, they (pharmaceutical companies) are still going to be doing business.
added couple currently curve economic fed funds good growth hike kicking man markets past pricing rate signal talk yield
Already the futures markets are pricing in another rate hike and talk about a 5.0-plus fed funds rate is making the rounds. The currently inverted yield curve may also be a signal to the Fed that the economic growth of the past couple of years may be waning and any added tightening may be like kicking a good man while he is down.
certainly helping intel
The upgrades are certainly helping Intel and Exxon, and that's boosting the Dow.
based dark investor
So what is an investor to do? Based on Friday's response, it may yet be a long dark winter.
additional broken commit dollars trading
We may have broken out of our trading range, but we would like to see some follow-through before we commit additional dollars to the market.
overall paid prices
Overall it doesn't look too bad. The prices paid is a concern. We'd like to see it come down a little. It's an inflationary key.
game gives late loaded process putting running sentiment side top
Right now sentiment is all loaded on one side of the market. It gives you the idea we're running late in the game -- we may be in the process of putting in a short-term top in the market.
destroy greenspan june last legacy months next price raised rates secure six stability tenure wake year
Greenspan is not going to wake up in June of next year and say 'I should have really raised rates more aggressively.' His legacy of price stability is pretty secure so I don't think the last six months of his tenure will destroy it for him.
beyond determine market power staying toward whether
But whether the market is going to have the staying power beyond today, I think we will be able to determine that toward the close,
directly economy energy higher impact prices reason report service services
The ISM report did have a big impact on the markets, and part of the reason is that the economy is now more of a service economy. And services are going to be much more directly and more immediately impacted by the higher energy prices we have seen.
adding chasing coming commodity economic fall focused inflation investors market numbers reacting rest trading until weaker
Investors are chasing commodity prices. Until we fall even lower, though, we're still in a trading range. We'll be very focused on inflation for the rest of the week. Economic numbers are coming a little weaker lately, adding to why the market is reacting poorly.
difference favor margin means numbers pass pressures price rest struggling
If you look at the difference between PPI and CPI, the numbers have been in favor of PPI. What that means is that corporations are still struggling to pass through price hikes. We should see margin pressures on corporations through the rest of the year.