Paul Nolte
Paul Nolte
aging coming concern expense fact integral keeping looking patents population possibly
There is some concern over drugs coming off of patents and the expense of those drugs, and in some cases, such as with Pfizer and Merck, the efficacy issues, ... But we still can't get away from the fact that we're looking at an aging population and drugs are an integral part of keeping us going as long as we possibly can.
certain coast colored confidence consumer gulf helping increased low number speech spending surprised terribly
To a certain extent, Bush's speech about increased spending in the U.S. Gulf Coast is helping the market. I am not too terribly surprised that consumer confidence is low because the number is colored by Katrina.
crazy expensive
We went from being expensive 10 years ago to crazy expensive, and now we're back to just expensive.
companies earnings enthusiasm expect few good pounding saying table terrific wild
Few companies are pounding the table and saying things are terrific so there's not the wild enthusiasm you would expect with a good earnings season,
added couple currently curve economic fed funds good growth hike kicking man markets past pricing rate signal talk yield
Already the futures markets are pricing in another rate hike and talk about a 5.0-plus fed funds rate is making the rounds. The currently inverted yield curve may also be a signal to the Fed that the economic growth of the past couple of years may be waning and any added tightening may be like kicking a good man while he is down.
certainly helping intel
The upgrades are certainly helping Intel and Exxon, and that's boosting the Dow.
based dark investor
So what is an investor to do? Based on Friday's response, it may yet be a long dark winter.
additional broken commit dollars trading
We may have broken out of our trading range, but we would like to see some follow-through before we commit additional dollars to the market.
erosion expect gradual movement sharp stocks
I don't expect to see a sharp movement in stocks -- it will be a gradual erosion over time.
attention economic paying phenomenon worth
But that's more of a short-term phenomenon than anything worth paying a lot of attention to, ... it's going to come down to better economic numbers.
destroy greenspan june last legacy months next price raised rates secure six stability tenure wake year
Greenspan is not going to wake up in June of next year and say 'I should have really raised rates more aggressively.' His legacy of price stability is pretty secure so I don't think the last six months of his tenure will destroy it for him.
economy focusing last people strong underlying view
I know people are focusing in on the dollar, but if we take a look at last week's strong action, our view at least, is that the underlying economy does not warrant it.
adding chasing coming commodity economic fall focused inflation investors market numbers reacting rest trading until weaker
Investors are chasing commodity prices. Until we fall even lower, though, we're still in a trading range. We'll be very focused on inflation for the rest of the week. Economic numbers are coming a little weaker lately, adding to why the market is reacting poorly.
difference favor margin means numbers pass pressures price rest struggling
If you look at the difference between PPI and CPI, the numbers have been in favor of PPI. What that means is that corporations are still struggling to pass through price hikes. We should see margin pressures on corporations through the rest of the year.