Paul Nolte
Paul Nolte
difference diplomatic east japanese less markets middle oil prices stellar week
What a difference a week makes, from improprieties in the Japanese markets to still-higher oil prices amid diplomatic rumblings in the Middle East to less than stellar earnings.
added couple currently curve economic fed funds good growth hike kicking man markets past pricing rate signal talk yield
Already the futures markets are pricing in another rate hike and talk about a 5.0-plus fed funds rate is making the rounds. The currently inverted yield curve may also be a signal to the Fed that the economic growth of the past couple of years may be waning and any added tightening may be like kicking a good man while he is down.
beyond determine market power staying toward whether
But whether the market is going to have the staying power beyond today, I think we will be able to determine that toward the close,
adding chasing coming commodity economic fall focused inflation investors market numbers reacting rest trading until weaker
Investors are chasing commodity prices. Until we fall even lower, though, we're still in a trading range. We'll be very focused on inflation for the rest of the week. Economic numbers are coming a little weaker lately, adding to why the market is reacting poorly.
broader carry earnings few last leader limited markets seeing stocks trading
If you look at how the markets have been trading the last few days, we're seeing a much broader decline. We're not seeing a leader that can carry the day. It's not limited to a few stocks anymore. Disappointment is broadening out during this earnings cycle.
continue driving economic markets numbers remain
The economic numbers are driving the bus. As long as the numbers remain kind of weak, if it doesn't look like we're getting much of a turnaround, then markets can continue to slide.
absolute coming foreign markets might start
The foreign markets are on an absolute tear, so there's some thought that the liquidity might start coming back into the U.S. markets.
fed market meeting mixed negative net news next oracle positive price producer sitting watching
You've got some positive news on oil, some negative news on Oracle and some mixed news from the producer price index. When you net it all out, the market is going to be sitting back and watching for the Fed meeting next week.
crazy expensive
We went from being expensive 10 years ago to crazy expensive, and now we're back to just expensive.
companies earnings enthusiasm expect few good pounding saying table terrific wild
Few companies are pounding the table and saying things are terrific so there's not the wild enthusiasm you would expect with a good earnings season,
context declining percent rally within
We could see a 3 to 5 percent rally and still be within the context of a declining market,
couple interested investors last selling strong telling trend volume weak
We have strong volume on down days, and weak volume on up days. That's the trend for the last couple weeks. That's telling that investors are more interested in selling than they are buying.
attention economic paying phenomenon worth
But that's more of a short-term phenomenon than anything worth paying a lot of attention to, ... it's going to come down to better economic numbers.
erosion expect gradual movement sharp stocks
I don't expect to see a sharp movement in stocks -- it will be a gradual erosion over time.