Paul Nolte
Paul Nolte
continue fed good growth hike job numbers pressure rate slow trends wage
The numbers are good from the Fed's perspective, even with November's ramped up numbers. Job growth is still slow and wage pressure has been nonexistent all year. If trends continue it could put pressure on the consumer. We may see the Fed have one more rate hike and then (be) done.
analysis bond came debating energy federal heading hikes looking moderation next prices residual seeing
We're getting a moderation in bond yields, and energy prices came down today. We're looking at things more favorably than this morning. There's still residual analysis about the Federal Reserve, and we're seeing some gamesmanship heading into next week's meeting, debating how more hikes we have.
added couple currently curve economic fed funds good growth hike kicking man markets past pricing rate signal talk yield
Already the futures markets are pricing in another rate hike and talk about a 5.0-plus fed funds rate is making the rounds. The currently inverted yield curve may also be a signal to the Fed that the economic growth of the past couple of years may be waning and any added tightening may be like kicking a good man while he is down.
fed market meeting mixed negative net news next oracle positive price producer sitting watching
You've got some positive news on oil, some negative news on Oracle and some mixed news from the producer price index. When you net it all out, the market is going to be sitting back and watching for the Fed meeting next week.
crazy expensive
We went from being expensive 10 years ago to crazy expensive, and now we're back to just expensive.
companies earnings enthusiasm expect few good pounding saying table terrific wild
Few companies are pounding the table and saying things are terrific so there's not the wild enthusiasm you would expect with a good earnings season,
context declining percent rally within
We could see a 3 to 5 percent rally and still be within the context of a declining market,
couple interested investors last selling strong telling trend volume weak
We have strong volume on down days, and weak volume on up days. That's the trend for the last couple weeks. That's telling that investors are more interested in selling than they are buying.
attention economic paying phenomenon worth
But that's more of a short-term phenomenon than anything worth paying a lot of attention to, ... it's going to come down to better economic numbers.
erosion expect gradual movement sharp stocks
I don't expect to see a sharp movement in stocks -- it will be a gradual erosion over time.
competition energy higher prices providing rise struggling
We're struggling with higher energy prices and also the rise in bonds, which is providing some competition for stocks.
aging coming concern expense fact integral keeping looking patents population possibly
There is some concern over drugs coming off of patents and the expense of those drugs, and in some cases, such as with Pfizer and Merck, the efficacy issues, ... But we still can't get away from the fact that we're looking at an aging population and drugs are an integral part of keeping us going as long as we possibly can.
certain coast colored confidence consumer gulf helping increased low number speech spending surprised terribly
To a certain extent, Bush's speech about increased spending in the U.S. Gulf Coast is helping the market. I am not too terribly surprised that consumer confidence is low because the number is colored by Katrina.
gains investors looking start stocks taking tech tend time tough weight
Stocks have had a real tough time maintaining gains this whole week. When we start taking a look around, gains tend to evaporate. Today, investors are looking at tech leaders. Those stocks are where the weight is being carried.