Paul Horsnell
Paul Horsnell
beyond built difference driving fall given motivation question raises regardless remains scale season supply timely
But the scale of the fall remains beyond that which would be expected, given the difference in supply lines, and regardless of its motivation it still raises the question as to how inventories for the driving season can be built in a timely fashion.
add cannot crude fix huge impact minor oil shortage time
The shortage is in gasoline, so you would need to add huge amounts of crude oil to have even a minor impact on prices. This is a time when the shortage has nothing to do with crude oil, and OPEC cannot fix it.
clearly expectation increased level market previous russian statement support
The Russian statement is clearly bullish, as the market expectation of any support for OPEC from Russia has increased from its previous level of zero.
breaking hurricane months slack
Even before the hurricane there was no slack in the refining system, ... Now it's at breaking point. Those refineries will take months to come back online.
five instant seven six
There is no instant turnaround. It could take five years, six years or seven years.
exposure fairly knew monstrous small stretched
We knew that things were getting fairly stretched and there was exposure to potentially even small shocks, but that is not a small shock, ... it's an absolute, monstrous hurricane.
extremely falling gaining ground inventory remains situation total
The U.S. inventory situation remains extremely tight, with total inventories still falling and gaining no ground on the five-year average.
brings close downward drift drifting dynamic months three
It's a downward drift that's been going on to close to three months now. And there's no dynamic that brings it around for the moment, so we can keep on drifting down.
area bear chemical concentration consequences extremely intensity plants potential relatively small thinking
The potential consequences don't even bear thinking about. There's such a concentration of refineries and chemical plants in a relatively small area that anything of that kind of intensity would be extremely nasty.
believe currently external iran key matters relations remain
We believe that Iran matters more than is currently priced in, and that Iran's external relations remain the key wildcard.
absence brakes checked either energy fairly ferocious likely middle move normality pressure price release spike strategic towards upwards
We are in the middle of a fairly ferocious energy price spike. The spike could be checked by a move back towards normality in Venezuela, or by a release of U.S. strategic reserves. However, the application of either of these brakes does not look particularly imminent, and in their absence the upwards pressure is likely to continue.
appears concern economic further immediate political prospect remains setbacks severe
The most immediate concern remains Iraq, where the prospect of further severe political and economic setbacks appears to be increasing.
continuing enforce imminent increased iraqi number oil price prospects recently seem view
Developments are continuing to enforce a very downbeat view on prospects for the Iraqi oil sector. In all, the recently increased number of analyses implying imminent and unavoidable price collapses do seem a little premature.
full next perhaps
Some of these refineries will not be back to full operation, perhaps well into next year.