Paul Horsnell
Paul Horsnell
clearly expectation increased level market previous russian statement support
The Russian statement is clearly bullish, as the market expectation of any support for OPEC from Russia has increased from its previous level of zero.
abandon area continues france issue later likely major market potential relations rise seems talks week
The issue of Iran's international relations continues to rise to the fore as a major potential area of market concern. It now seems likely that the EU3 of Germany, UK, and France will later this week abandon the mothballed talks with Iran.
basis far fast hard market pushed seems
The market seems to have pushed far too far, far too fast and on the basis of far too little hard information.
although becoming crude currently depress effect expected heavy imports loss market next none oil weekly weeks
The loss of short-haul heavy crude oil imports into the U.S. market is now becoming significant. None of that effect is currently in the U.S. weekly data, although it can be expected to depress imports in at least the next two weeks of data.
extreme faces market period prospect shocks sufficient
The market faces the prospect of years without sufficient flexibility or insulation from shocks during a period of extreme geopolitical stress.
add cannot crude fix huge impact minor oil shortage time
The shortage is in gasoline, so you would need to add huge amounts of crude oil to have even a minor impact on prices. This is a time when the shortage has nothing to do with crude oil, and OPEC cannot fix it.
breaking hurricane months slack
Even before the hurricane there was no slack in the refining system, ... Now it's at breaking point. Those refineries will take months to come back online.
beyond built difference driving fall given motivation question raises regardless remains scale season supply timely
But the scale of the fall remains beyond that which would be expected, given the difference in supply lines, and regardless of its motivation it still raises the question as to how inventories for the driving season can be built in a timely fashion.
five instant seven six
There is no instant turnaround. It could take five years, six years or seven years.
exposure fairly knew monstrous small stretched
We knew that things were getting fairly stretched and there was exposure to potentially even small shocks, but that is not a small shock, ... it's an absolute, monstrous hurricane.
extremely falling gaining ground inventory remains situation total
The U.S. inventory situation remains extremely tight, with total inventories still falling and gaining no ground on the five-year average.
brings close downward drift drifting dynamic months three
It's a downward drift that's been going on to close to three months now. And there's no dynamic that brings it around for the moment, so we can keep on drifting down.
area bear chemical concentration consequences extremely intensity plants potential relatively small thinking
The potential consequences don't even bear thinking about. There's such a concentration of refineries and chemical plants in a relatively small area that anything of that kind of intensity would be extremely nasty.
believe currently external iran key matters relations remain
We believe that Iran matters more than is currently priced in, and that Iran's external relations remain the key wildcard.