Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
ballgame consumer economic looks spending supporting terms trend weaker
Spending was up, a little weaker than expected... Nevertheless, the trend has been upward and it looks like the consumer is still in the ballgame in terms of supporting economic growth.
basically basis core inflation personal trend whether year
Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie.
housing impact january jump looks starts trend warm weather
It looks like warm weather had a big impact so the big jump in January housing starts can be attributed to that. However, the moderating trend in housing really is still in place.
claims compared general healthy indicator initial labor last low march market months remains several size trend workforce
The trend in general for the last several months has been in this ballpark, with initial claims being really pretty low compared with the size of the workforce and the size of the economy. So for some time, jobless claims have been and indicator that the labor market remains healthy and March payrolls probably will remain pretty healthy as well.
downward evidence fact fed interest might months raising rates rather sooner stop trend
The fact that (core inflation) has been on a downward trend for two months is more evidence that Fed policy-makers might stop raising interest rates sooner rather than later.
claims close energy leading level months spike typical weekly
We're getting close to the weekly level of new claims that was typical of the months leading up to the late-summer hurricanes and the spike in energy prices.
cushion department economy figures katrina labor message numbers positive result says shows strip underlying
The positive message is that if you strip out the numbers that the Labor Department says are the result of the hurricane, the underlying figures are still pretty decent. That shows that there was some cushion in the economy before Katrina hit.
conclude consumer eventually factor federal fourth growth help housing monetary rate reserve sector slow spending tend
We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle.
certainly gasoline resulting spike weigh
There is certainly more going on than just hurricanes and a resulting spike in gasoline prices, ... could weigh on people's attitudes.
definitely level looking modest previous remain revision
We did have a modest upward revision in the previous week's claims, but we remain under the psychologically important 400,000 level and that's definitely something that we've been looking for.
broad certain enjoying evidence fed interest monetary period piece policy raising rates robust terms
Manufacturing in broad terms is enjoying a very robust period even if certain sub-industries are struggling. It's probably another piece of evidence that the Fed could potentially be raising interest rates after the May 10 monetary policy meeting.
fed raising rates stop support
That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
core december fed inflation modest percent personal raising rates reflects rise stable stop support
The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
coming consistent continue home housing likely market moderate sales view
This is consistent with our view that the housing market is likely to continue to moderate in the coming months. But ... home sales are historically pretty strong.