Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
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The numbers are still quite healthy, they're still well within the range you would expect in a period of high demand for labor.
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The positive message is that if you strip out the numbers that the Labor Department says are the result of the hurricane, the underlying figures are still pretty decent. That shows that there was some cushion in the economy before Katrina hit.
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There was decent strength across the retail sector. These numbers are consistent with an economy growing at a comfortable rate, a pace that would allow the Fed to continue to raise interest rates in a measured fashion.
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It could mean that those people don't show up in the jobless numbers until relatively late, so it's an evolving situations in terms of understanding the impact on the labor market.
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It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number. In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle.
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It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number, ... In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle.
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The service sector of the economy is still growing at a good pace and that is consistent with what we were seeing in the employment report for November.
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Even though that was an 11,000 increase, you have to say claims remain relatively low and certainly in the range we would expect in a strong labor market.
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The survey for the final reading would have taken place over the past 10 days or so, when market volatility was particularly high, ... Because of that, the final reading very well could have come in below the preliminary reading. The fact it came in higher shows a certain amount of resilience in the consumer sector.
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The trend in general for the last several months has been in this ballpark, with initial claims being really pretty low compared with the size of the workforce and the size of the economy. So for some time, jobless claims have been and indicator that the labor market remains healthy and March payrolls probably will remain pretty healthy as well.
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That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
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The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
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Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie.
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Manufacturing in broad terms is enjoying a very robust period even if certain sub-industries are struggling. It's probably another piece of evidence that the Fed could potentially be raising interest rates after the May 10 monetary policy meeting.