Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
ballgame consumer economic looks spending supporting terms trend weaker
Spending was up, a little weaker than expected... Nevertheless, the trend has been upward and it looks like the consumer is still in the ballgame in terms of supporting economic growth.
evolving impact labor mean numbers people relatively situations terms understanding until
It could mean that those people don't show up in the jobless numbers until relatively late, so it's an evolving situations in terms of understanding the impact on the labor market.
cautious energy people possibly prices rebound recent reflects
It could be this reflects the recent rebound in energy prices that possibly made people a little more cautious again.
close investment point wage
We're probably close to the point where there will be a take-off in investment and wage growth.
core decide fairly fed growth hand point raising rate soon stop
If the core rate doesn't get out of hand and growth comes in moderate, at some point fairly soon the Fed could decide ... to stop raising rates.
claims expected initial job range solid within
Initial claims were significantly better than the expected 300,000, and they were well within the range we would expect in a solid job market.
april claims coming confidence consumer employment figures good job kinds point report solid
All kinds of indicators point to a very good report on April employment ... with jobless claims figures coming in where they are and the consumer confidence indicators ... all point to solid job creation.
coming consistent decline expected figure housing percent permits sector seems starts thesis weaker
The housing starts figure coming in down 5.6 percent was weaker than expected and seems consistent with our thesis that the housing sector is moderating. The big decline in housing permits reinforces that idea.
claims consistent darn drop economic good healthy level number range
The drop in jobless claims is a darn good number. A number in the range of 325,000 to 350,000 is a level that is more consistent with healthy economic growth,
claims continuing drifting drop rate sign start
The drop in continuing claims could be a sign that the unemployment rate could start drifting downward.
claims close energy leading level months spike typical weekly
We're getting close to the weekly level of new claims that was typical of the months leading up to the late-summer hurricanes and the spike in energy prices.
cushion department economy figures katrina labor message numbers positive result says shows strip underlying
The positive message is that if you strip out the numbers that the Labor Department says are the result of the hurricane, the underlying figures are still pretty decent. That shows that there was some cushion in the economy before Katrina hit.
conclude consumer eventually factor federal fourth growth help housing monetary rate reserve sector slow spending tend
We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle.
certainly gasoline resulting spike weigh
There is certainly more going on than just hurricanes and a resulting spike in gasoline prices, ... could weigh on people's attitudes.