Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
continuing energy labor main market people prices reasons roughly starting
With energy prices at least roughly flattening out, and with the labor market continuing to strengthen, those are probably two of the main reasons people are starting to get more optimistic.
housing impact january jump looks starts trend warm weather
It looks like warm weather had a big impact so the big jump in January housing starts can be attributed to that. However, the moderating trend in housing really is still in place.
albeit consumer continuing economic fact good growth labor market momentum positive reflects sign start year
It's a good sign that the consumer has some momentum going into the start of the year and that probably reflects the fact that the labor market is continuing to improve, albeit modestly. It's a positive for economic growth this year.
believers finally labor market people starting
The labor market has been strengthening for a while, but it may be that people are finally starting to become believers in it.
claims continuing drifting drop rate sign start
The drop in continuing claims could be a sign that the unemployment rate could start drifting downward.
coming consistent decline expected figure housing percent permits sector seems starts thesis weaker
The housing starts figure coming in down 5.6 percent was weaker than expected and seems consistent with our thesis that the housing sector is moderating. The big decline in housing permits reinforces that idea.
august decent economic expected figure peak revised weaker
It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number. In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle.
august decent economic expected figure peak revised weaker
It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number, ... In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle.
consistent economy employment good growing pace report sector seeing service
The service sector of the economy is still growing at a good pace and that is consistent with what we were seeing in the employment report for November.
certainly claims expect labor low range relatively remain strong though
Even though that was an 11,000 increase, you have to say claims remain relatively low and certainly in the range we would expect in a strong labor market.
amount below came certain consumer days fact final higher market past reading resilience shows survey taken volatility
The survey for the final reading would have taken place over the past 10 days or so, when market volatility was particularly high, ... Because of that, the final reading very well could have come in below the preliminary reading. The fact it came in higher shows a certain amount of resilience in the consumer sector.
claims compared general healthy indicator initial labor last low march market months remains several size trend workforce
The trend in general for the last several months has been in this ballpark, with initial claims being really pretty low compared with the size of the workforce and the size of the economy. So for some time, jobless claims have been and indicator that the labor market remains healthy and March payrolls probably will remain pretty healthy as well.
fed raising rates stop support
That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
core december fed inflation modest percent personal raising rates reflects rise stable stop support
The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.