Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
believers finally labor market people starting
The labor market has been strengthening for a while, but it may be that people are finally starting to become believers in it.
albeit consumer continuing economic fact good growth labor market momentum positive reflects sign start year
It's a good sign that the consumer has some momentum going into the start of the year and that probably reflects the fact that the labor market is continuing to improve, albeit modestly. It's a positive for economic growth this year.
housing impact january jump looks starts trend warm weather
It looks like warm weather had a big impact so the big jump in January housing starts can be attributed to that. However, the moderating trend in housing really is still in place.
continuing energy labor main market people prices reasons roughly starting
With energy prices at least roughly flattening out, and with the labor market continuing to strengthen, those are probably two of the main reasons people are starting to get more optimistic.
claims continuing drifting drop rate sign start
The drop in continuing claims could be a sign that the unemployment rate could start drifting downward.
coming consistent decline expected figure housing percent permits sector seems starts thesis weaker
The housing starts figure coming in down 5.6 percent was weaker than expected and seems consistent with our thesis that the housing sector is moderating. The big decline in housing permits reinforces that idea.
claims close energy leading level months spike typical weekly
We're getting close to the weekly level of new claims that was typical of the months leading up to the late-summer hurricanes and the spike in energy prices.
cushion department economy figures katrina labor message numbers positive result says shows strip underlying
The positive message is that if you strip out the numbers that the Labor Department says are the result of the hurricane, the underlying figures are still pretty decent. That shows that there was some cushion in the economy before Katrina hit.
conclude consumer eventually factor federal fourth growth help housing monetary rate reserve sector slow spending tend
We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle.
certainly gasoline resulting spike weigh
There is certainly more going on than just hurricanes and a resulting spike in gasoline prices, ... could weigh on people's attitudes.
definitely level looking modest previous remain revision
We did have a modest upward revision in the previous week's claims, but we remain under the psychologically important 400,000 level and that's definitely something that we've been looking for.
broad certain enjoying evidence fed interest monetary period piece policy raising rates robust terms
Manufacturing in broad terms is enjoying a very robust period even if certain sub-industries are struggling. It's probably another piece of evidence that the Fed could potentially be raising interest rates after the May 10 monetary policy meeting.
ballgame consumer economic looks spending supporting terms trend weaker
Spending was up, a little weaker than expected... Nevertheless, the trend has been upward and it looks like the consumer is still in the ballgame in terms of supporting economic growth.
fed raising rates stop support
That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.