Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
conclude consumer eventually factor federal fourth growth help housing monetary rate reserve sector slow spending tend
We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle.
benefit bit companies competition economy helped increase level quite reaping stronger technology
Companies are reaping the benefit of enhancements in technology discovery, which has helped them increase their productivity. At the same time, there is a level of competition in the economy that is quite a bit stronger than it has been in the past.
additional boost disruption further gasoline helped looks potential prices
It looks like the potential disruption has helped to further boost gasoline prices and that could be some additional headwind for the economy.
consumer sector shows strength
This shows some strength in the consumer sector at the end of the year.
continuing energy labor main market people prices reasons roughly starting
With energy prices at least roughly flattening out, and with the labor market continuing to strengthen, those are probably two of the main reasons people are starting to get more optimistic.
certainly claims expect labor low range relatively remain strong though
Even though that was an 11,000 increase, you have to say claims remain relatively low and certainly in the range we would expect in a strong labor market.
annual august brings good inflation moderate news seen september
The good news is that this is much more moderate than we had seen in September and August and it brings the annual inflation rate down to 4.3 percent.
quarters sneeze straight three
We've now had three straight quarters of above-average growth, and that's nothing to sneeze at.
demand existing hard healthy hiring hold onto reports suggesting trying
Firms are trying very hard to hold onto their existing workers. Other reports are suggesting firms are also hiring new workers. All that translates into a healthy demand for labor.
certainly gasoline resulting spike weigh
There is certainly more going on than just hurricanes and a resulting spike in gasoline prices, ... could weigh on people's attitudes.
definitely level looking modest previous remain revision
We did have a modest upward revision in the previous week's claims, but we remain under the psychologically important 400,000 level and that's definitely something that we've been looking for.
ballgame consumer economic looks spending supporting terms trend weaker
Spending was up, a little weaker than expected... Nevertheless, the trend has been upward and it looks like the consumer is still in the ballgame in terms of supporting economic growth.
fed raising rates stop support
That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
core december fed inflation modest percent personal raising rates reflects rise stable stop support
The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.