Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
demand expect high numbers period quite range within
The numbers are still quite healthy, they're still well within the range you would expect in a period of high demand for labor.
certainly conspiracy eat economists gods seems words
It seems like this is a conspiracy by the gods to make us economists eat our words when we said manufacturing was back on its feet. It's certainly a disappointing number.
clear continues economy holding interested remains workers
It remains pretty clear that corporations are interested in holding on to their workers as the economy continues to expand.
activity designed expanding factory midwest point readings
This index is designed so that readings over 50 point to expanding activity in the Midwest factory sector.
affect fourth
There was some slacking off in the fourth quarter, but I didn't think it would affect the whole country.
across allow consistent continue decent economy fed growing interest measured numbers pace raise rates retail strength
There was decent strength across the retail sector. These numbers are consistent with an economy growing at a comfortable rate, a pace that would allow the Fed to continue to raise interest rates in a measured fashion.
again chance deficit energy good news next piece positive prices remember trade
The narrower trade deficit is a positive piece of news for February. However, with energy prices going up recently, you have to remember that there's a good chance that the trade deficit will widen again over the next (few) months.
claims compared general healthy indicator initial labor last low march market months remains several size trend workforce
The trend in general for the last several months has been in this ballpark, with initial claims being really pretty low compared with the size of the workforce and the size of the economy. So for some time, jobless claims have been and indicator that the labor market remains healthy and March payrolls probably will remain pretty healthy as well.
claims consistent darn drop economic good healthy level number range
The drop in jobless claims is a darn good number. A number in the range of 325,000 to 350,000 is a level that is more consistent with healthy economic growth,
claims continuing drifting drop rate sign start
The drop in continuing claims could be a sign that the unemployment rate could start drifting downward.
april claims coming confidence consumer employment figures good job kinds point report solid
All kinds of indicators point to a very good report on April employment ... with jobless claims figures coming in where they are and the consumer confidence indicators ... all point to solid job creation.
coming consistent decline expected figure housing percent permits sector seems starts thesis weaker
The housing starts figure coming in down 5.6 percent was weaker than expected and seems consistent with our thesis that the housing sector is moderating. The big decline in housing permits reinforces that idea.