Oscar Gonzalez
Oscar Gonzalez
biggest blow consumers crushing decline employment factor growth job october report rise sharp shows single
If, as expected, the October employment report shows a sharp rise in unemployment and a sharp decline in job growth, it could be a crushing blow to confidence. Having a job is probably the single biggest factor in consumers having confidence.
check crow cycle despite eating energy fears fed good hawks inflation labor markets prices rate report rising strong surprised tight
Inflation hawks may be eating crow today. Despite their fears of tight labor markets and a strong economy, inflation is only creeping, not accelerating. I don't think that this report assures that the Fed tightening cycle is over, but I wouldn't be surprised to see rising market expectations of a rate cut. With most prices in check and energy prices easing, this report is about as good as it gets.
again avoiding continue economy economy-and-economics fed grow improving less likely move reports retail sales seem strong suggest
Strong but moderating retail sales and improving productivity suggest an economy that should continue to grow while avoiding overheating, ... The reports would seem to make it less likely that the Fed will need to move again this year.
consumers deter ease fears fed market rates report several showing signs tame
The report isn't so tame as to deter the Fed from bumping rates another notch, especially with Y2K fears dissipating and consumers showing no signs of fatigue. However, it should ease market fears that the Fed will need to tighten several more times.
arm economy employment eyes fed few figures giving next past push quite report seen shift shot suggest weeks
All eyes will now shift to next week's employment report. The figures we've seen over the past few weeks suggest it will be quite weak. The report may be enough to push the Fed into giving the economy another shot in the arm at their next meeting.
against confidence consumer decrease downside improvement improving including increase jobs protection slump solid spending suggest sustained
While improving consumer confidence probably suggests downside protection against a slump in spending, it does not suggest we will see spending take off. We still need a sustained improvement in the jobs market, including a significant decrease in unemployment with a solid increase in real wages.
alert fed future high numbers though
Even though the numbers are soothing, the Fed still is on high alert for a future flare-up in prices,
albeit direction further good improvement news signs
The good news is that we're moving, albeit slowly, in the right direction and there are signs of further improvement on the horizon,
continue door easing economy expect fed open pressures since
Since the economy is softening, I expect inflationary pressures to subside. The door is still open for the Fed to continue easing rates, as necessary.
crude energy front mean nobody prices record relief sees time trade
Record crude prices usually mean record trade gaps. Nobody sees relief on the energy front any time soon.
additional benefit businesses cause corporate costs critical cutting delay further lean rising sluggish
Rising benefit costs are cutting into already lean corporate profits. This may cause businesses to further delay additional hiring, which is critical to boosting the sluggish economy.
act both business confidence consumer deeper fed further greenspan rate remains sooner street timing wall
I think the Fed will act aggressively. The timing remains to be seen, but both Main Street and Wall Street are pleading for further rate cuts, so I think Greenspan will respond. The sooner and deeper a rate cut, the sooner consumer and business confidence should improve.
control data err fed inflation keeping price recent side whether worry
I don't think recent price data suggests that inflation is dead. The Fed has to worry about whether or not it is keeping inflation under control and it would probably like to err on the side of caution.
energy given prices push supply taking
Given the tightness of supply and demand, it isn't taking much to push energy prices sharply higher.