Nigel Gault
Nigel Gault
scholars-and-scholarship start stop unusual
It wouldn't be unusual at all for them to stop and start again.
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Energy prices were rising before Katrina hit, and while those costs didn't make their way through to finished goods in August, we have to expect higher core inflation in coming months. Firms are saying that they've absorbed so much already that they have to pass on these costs.
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Excluding autos, spending growth looks healthy -- not a blockbuster holiday season, but far better than it appeared a couple of months ago when gasoline prices were over $3 per gallon.
consumers faster increasing spending
U.S. consumers have been increasing their spending much faster than their incomes.
coming deficit given larger oil points recent rises trend
The trend still points to a larger deficit in coming months, especially given the recent rises in oil prices.
believe growth numbers rest soft throughout today view
We believe the numbers today are confirming our view that growth will be soft throughout the rest of the year.
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We are now at the point where Hurricane Katrina's effects are adding to job creation rather than detracting from it.
case consumer dead spending stops suddenly turn
I don't think it's the case that we suddenly turn off the tap, and consumer spending stops dead in its tracks. It's more gradual.
deficit few widening within
Within a few months, the deficit will be widening to new records.
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With consumers likely to return to the malls from the auto showrooms, spending in other areas will pick up again, especially once cooler weather arrives to give a boost to fall clothing,
asking associated energy gets magnitude mentioned movements needs question reason sort start
The reason (recession) gets mentioned . . . is that (energy price) movements of this sort of magnitude usually would be associated with recession. So you do have to start asking the question, ... The question needs to be asked, even if we think things are different on this occasion.
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There is no sign at all now that US consumers have started to tighten their belts. This will increase the chances that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates up until May.
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The goods and services deficit will continue to widen, especially since after Katrina the United States will be importing more energy products at higher prices.
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For a long time we've been looking for consumer spending to slow down, ... It's a question whether this is a trigger for a broader slowdown in consumer spending and the housing market.