Nick Bennenbroek
Nick Bennenbroek
against australian case dollar interest outlook overall rate spread steady weakness
The overall case for Australian dollar weakness is still in place with a steady interest rate outlook in Australia and a diminishing interest rate spread against the U.S..
reason today weakness
Part of the reason for the dollar's weakness today is positioning,
higher relatively saw support trend
We saw some support at 120.70 yen, with the higher dollar/yen trend still in place and any kind of pullback should be relatively shallow.
bullish clearly community investment performance start
At the start of the year, the investment community was very bullish on Asia. The currencies' performance is clearly surprising.
bullish clearly community investment performance start
At the start of the year, the investment community was very bullish on Asia, ... The currencies' performance is clearly surprising.
consumer currency economy expansion falling firm footing investment meaningful sustained
Currency fundamentals are falling into place for a meaningful yen gain. The economy has been on a firm footing for some time. The expansion is being increasingly sustained by investment and consumer spending.
coming comments euro fairly reasons steady stream today zone
One of the reasons for the choppiness today is because of a fairly steady stream of comments coming out of the euro zone on the currency,
again dollar early half interest year yields
Yields were very important in 2005; we think they'll be important again over the early part of 2006. Over the first half of the year we think the dollar will do a little better on interest rates.
bang core dollar inflation key might slight
This might be a slight dollar negative. The key was the core which was bang on expectations at 0.2 percent. So there's not much inflation there.
achieve chance changes difficult good major pace policy reform slow weigh
It is going to be difficult to achieve any major policy changes now. The pace of reform is going to slow to a crawl. There is a very good chance this will weigh on the euro.
fed hike possibly report strength suggest
There is enough strength in this report to suggest at least one more hike from the Fed and possibly more.
approach federal inflation key likely response
The key thing is that, while this doesn't take away inflation concerns, it mitigates some of them and makes the 'measured' approach ... an even more likely response from the Federal Reserve.
dollar europe fed match
The Fed will match or outpace the tightening of Europe or Japan, which should be dollar positive.
australian bank dollar fed higher lessen outlook quite reserve steady support year
Interest-rate support for the Australian dollar will lessen quite substantially as the year progresses. We see a steady outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia and a higher Fed rate.