Neil Ferguson
Neil Ferguson
disease people perspective understand
From the perspective of disease modeling, one thing we would like to understand better is the variability between people in their traveling.
contain measure spread
Each measure can have a significant effect, but it can't contain spread on its own.
both bullet came cases magic pandemic single stopping
Both cases we came up with were very pessimistic. There is no single magic bullet for stopping pandemic flu.
chance gets infected small time trigger virus
Every time a new person gets infected with the virus there is a small chance that person will trigger a pandemic. It's a very small chance, probably 1 in a 1000, 1 in 10,000 or less.
prevent single
To be effective, ... you really must use a combination of strategies. No single one would successfully prevent an epidemic.
france gap
France could do this now; this is highlighting the gap between U.S. and Europe.
bullet control effective flu highly magic modelling saving shows single
The modelling shows there is no single magic bullet which can control a flu pandemic, but that a combination of interventions could be highly effective at saving lives.
event faced flu happen might scared spanish worse
This is the event we're all scared might happen at any time. We'd be faced with an event worse than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.
event faced flu happen might scared spanish worse
This is the event we're all scared might happen at any time, ... We'd be faced with an event worse than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.
died flu million people planet scale six spanish
Around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, ... There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.
chance currently individual requires stopping treat
If we treat those people, we have a chance of stopping avian flu, ... But that requires an international stockpile, and currently there are only stockpiles made by individual governments.