Neal Soss
Neal Soss
against costs elicit federal further growth held hikes inflation labor likely markets rate remained remains signs threat unit
Productivity growth has held up well, so unit labor costs have remained soft. Against that backdrop, the inflation threat remains muted in our view. But signs of tightening labor markets are still likely to elicit further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
curve extent
To the extent that a Phillips curve exists, it's a moveable feast.
economy federal good market news perspective pressure takes
The good news from market perspective is that if the economy is slower, all else equal, that takes pressure off the Federal Reserve.
normal payroll producing strong warmer
Warmer than normal Januarys have a penchant for producing surprisingly strong payroll numbers.
correction either great market price
We had a great run. After a market has had a big run, you either get a correction in price or a correction in time.
accustomed comments government officials
We're accustomed to the insights of government officials being authoritative. Greenspan's comments may be wise, but they aren't actionable anymore.
continues inflation retail sales
It is magnificent that inflation continues to be low, but retail sales are smoking.
associate bad bond economy fiscal increase lower market news spending
Market participants may well associate bad news on the economy with an increase in fiscal spending and lower bond prices.
federal funds itself move point reserve talked
Well, I think the Federal Reserve has pretty much talked itself into another 1/4 point move on the Federal funds rate.
backing clearly fed housing leadership rest role
Housing is backing off from its leadership role in the economy, but clearly something else is replacing it. The Fed has a little more to do and then they can rest on their oars.
activity congress giving questions sort start
In its own way, this activity of testifying before the Congress is most like being a professor. You start by giving a lecture. And then you submit, so to speak, to questions from your students. So temperamentally, I think he's very well-suited to this sort of congressional appearance.
business costs cutting force problems profit raising reflects solved supposed
Once upon a time, business solved its problems by raising prices. Now, they solve their problems by cutting costs and getting better productivity. It reflects that productivity but doesn't force pricing, doesn't constrict profit margins. It's what an economy's supposed to do.
changes economy economy-and-economics federal learned reserve strength thinking time weakness
The Federal Reserve has been for some time thinking of the economy as having two diametrically opposing influences: strength domestically and weakness overseas. There's nothing we've learned (today) that changes that view.
bias fact matter means meeting words
It's a matter of words that don't have much content. The fact that they've said they have a bias to tighten means nothing if meeting after meeting nothing happens.