Neal Soss
Neal Soss
correction either great market price
We had a great run. After a market has had a big run, you either get a correction in price or a correction in time.
direction disappear emphasis maybe readily time tweak word words
The word 'measured' could very readily disappear now. They'll probably tweak the words one more time in the direction of being that much more open-ended, but maybe with the emphasis on 'ended' than 'open.
against costs elicit federal further growth held hikes inflation labor likely markets rate remained remains signs threat unit
Productivity growth has held up well, so unit labor costs have remained soft. Against that backdrop, the inflation threat remains muted in our view. But signs of tightening labor markets are still likely to elicit further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
normal payroll producing strong warmer
Warmer than normal Januarys have a penchant for producing surprisingly strong payroll numbers.
economy federal good market news perspective pressure takes
The good news from market perspective is that if the economy is slower, all else equal, that takes pressure off the Federal Reserve.
curve extent
To the extent that a Phillips curve exists, it's a moveable feast.
bias fact matter means meeting words
It's a matter of words that don't have much content. The fact that they've said they have a bias to tighten means nothing if meeting after meeting nothing happens.
accustomed comments government officials
We're accustomed to the insights of government officials being authoritative. Greenspan's comments may be wise, but they aren't actionable anymore.
federal funds itself move point reserve talked
Well, I think the Federal Reserve has pretty much talked itself into another 1/4 point move on the Federal funds rate.
desirable economy good growing higher somewhat
As long as the economy is growing at such a good pace, it is appropriate and desirable that the FOMC acknowledge that with somewhat higher rates.
puzzles
You don't see the symptoms, and that's one of the puzzles of the moment.
april census chain figures march overstate results retailers smaller store swings tend weakness
As a result, the swings between March and April in the Census figures tend to be smaller than the swings in the retailers' report. Chain store results from the retailers may overstate the weakness in March.
bit burden committee data raising rates seems
This committee still seems predisposed to raising rates a bit more, and the burden is on the data to tell them otherwise.
continues inflation retail sales
It is magnificent that inflation continues to be low, but retail sales are smoking.