Nauman Barakat
Nauman Barakat
barrels context crude highest less million mind producing runs since stocks
Crude stocks are misleading. Yes, they are the highest since 1999 but keep in mind that we are now producing 1 million barrels a day less in the U.S. and refinery runs are up by 1.2 million barrels a day. In that context crude stocks are not high.
bull doctors enter high last low perhaps seen three
Typically when the dentists and doctors enter the market, you've probably seen the high or low of the move, perhaps the end of the bull cycle. Where have they been for the last three years?
anywhere near reason
There is no reason to think we are anywhere near the top.
build due putting
The big build in distillates is what's going to be putting a lid on this market. I think we are probably due for a big correction.
coming looks quicker
It looks like some of them are coming back a lot quicker than some of us thought.
cold continued downward february market unless
It won't be before the February contract. But unless we see a continued cold spell, this market will be under downward pressure.
draw gasoline question
The question is, is this a short-lived phenomenon? If you get another big draw in gasoline tomorrow, this sell-off could be a one-day miracle.
actual assuming compliance create cutting full impression trying
They're trying to create the impression that they are cutting back more than they are. Even assuming full compliance the actual cut would probably only be 800,000 bpd.
below days degrees gets last mild month normal november rest
It gets cold. Winters are cold, it's not a surprise. We had such a mild November we'd need it to be 15 to 18 degrees below normal for the rest of the month to get the degree days we had last year, and that's not going to happen.
global impact therefore
It is not 9/11 in its devastation or its impact on global demand. Therefore this sell-off will be very temporary.
above difficult jury longer short time top trade
For the time being it's put a top on the market. It'll be difficult to trade above $30 in the short term. Longer term, the jury is still out.
break close difficult fear number step
The fear is as we get close to $50, OPEC may step in. $50 is a number that will be difficult to break on the downside,
bank market money prudent time
The market has been up so sharply, it would be a prudent time to put money in the bank and then reposition,