Michael Shifter
Michael Shifter
Michael Shifter is President of the Inter-American Dialogue and an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council's journal Foreign Affairs. He is also a member of the Latin American Studies Association, and a contributing editor to Current History...
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It's still a big question how he's going to govern. Clearly if he wants to be a successful president, he doesn't want the same fate as some of his predecessors.
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Clearly in Latin America, things are not happening the way the United States would like to see them happen. And the question is: Will the US try to be more engaged and be supportive of the people who believe in the same thing as it does, or will it react to these trends as threats to the US, which could turn them into a self-fulfilling prophecy?
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If Morales fully carries out his proposed agenda, the consequences would be likely to be quite problematic. His supporters may be happy, but Bolivia's economy would not be viable.
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So far, it's a stage of exploration and posturing, and certainly could turn into something more serious. But it's very hard to predict right now.
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The two countries are locked in a situation of mutual dependence at an economic level because of oil, while being locked in a massive clash, a lot of rhetoric.
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Brazil is an absolutely critical player in the hemisphere. There is a limit to how much progress the U.S. can make on any issue, free trade included, without Brazil's support and cooperation.
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Brazil is an absolutely critical player in the hemisphere, ... There is a limit to how much progress the U.S. can make on any issue, free trade included, without Brazil's support and cooperation.
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To be frank, it doesn't surprise me. Chavez is a case apart; but if you look at the finance ministers -- Chile, Uruguay, Brazil -- all of them would please Milton Friedman with their fiscal discipline and their closing down of debts. And even those on the left stress 'effectiveness' as the model. It shows that the old labels don't have a lot of meaning in the present context.
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Washington is a specialist in doing things that benefit Chavez.
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There's no consensus on how to move forward.
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The Rumsfeld comment is further proof that the administration doesn't have a coherent policy. There are very conflicting signals.
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The way Robertson's declarations will play in Latin America is that Chavez is right and that the U.S. is out to get him.
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These conflicting messages reflect a lack of clarity and coherence. When (Venezuelan President Hugo) Chavez speaks, they react. There is no strategy of thinking longer-term and in more strategic terms.
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More than any other leader, he is shaping the agenda and setting the terms of debate in the region. Chavez has the initiative, he's on the offensive, and everyone else is reacting to what he says and does.