Michael Shifter
Michael Shifter
Michael Shifter is President of the Inter-American Dialogue and an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council's journal Foreign Affairs. He is also a member of the Latin American Studies Association, and a contributing editor to Current History...
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The question is, when it comes time to confront those policy decisions, whether that could create more violence or unrest.
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Palacio thought he could pursue a different course, have a greater emphasis on a social agenda. But I think he's encountered real obstacles, not just within Ecuador but in the international community. I think he's wanted to have it both ways, but that's proven to be extremely difficult.
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At a moment when relations between the US and Latin America are at their lowest point since the end of the cold war, this fence proposal is viewed as a terrible affront.
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They felt that if prosecution was allowed, it would be very difficult to build peace and go beyond the conflict. On the other hand, it does support impunity, which is not helpful.
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The way Robertson's declarations will play in Latin America is that Chavez is right and that the U.S. is out to get him.
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It could have been worse if Bush had been embarrassed, or humiliated.
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I think they're not as quick to dismiss his bluster as they used to be.
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Relations are probably at their lowest point. Things have gotten very bad. The two governments are on a collision course.
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Clearly in Latin America, things are not happening the way the United States would like to see them happen. And the question is: Will the US try to be more engaged and be supportive of the people who believe in the same thing as it does, or will it react to these trends as threats to the US, which could turn them into a self-fulfilling prophecy?
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So far, it's a stage of exploration and posturing, and certainly could turn into something more serious. But it's very hard to predict right now.
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I haven't seen any indication of a willingness to tolerate Morales' positions, and you have to remember that eradicating coca is a core element of U.S. drug policy. This is where the passions are greatest, especially in Congress.
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If Morales fully carries out his proposed agenda, the consequences would be likely to be quite problematic. His supporters may be happy, but Bolivia's economy would not be viable.
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If the opposition parties are seen as not being constructive and blocking everything Morales tries to do that would not be in their own interests.
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If Uribe's allowed to run he's in an extremely strong position, but it's not necessarily a foregone conclusion.