Michael On
Michael On
evidence forecast industry likely peak
Intel's forecast is evidence that the semiconductor industry is likely to peak in the first quarter.
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The warm January has permitted a window of opportunity to stage an early refinery turnover, longer-term weather forecasts call for a warm conclusion to the heating season, and gasoline has been quickly rebuilding stockpiles in advance of summer.
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We're going to wait until Feb. 26 to see what they say about their restructuring, but our forecasts say they'll break even in 2002, ... It is possible they could be profitable in the first half, but we think it's unlikely.
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Right now the general direction is up and that's because of the economy. But there is still a tremendous amount of skepticism about analysts' forecasts and the ability for corporations to repair profits that could challenge us next week.
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Our concern on Qualcomm relates to the outlook for the handset and CDMA business. As we have indicated previously, we remain concerned that the company may take down forecasts for future earnings because we think the company's CDMA forecasts are too aggressive.
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Milder weather forecasts for this week and extraordinarily high stockpiles continued to weigh on sentiment.
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Motivator will be declared and sent to Ireland as things stand. The rain is not due until Friday and, I stress, we need it to arrive but if the forecast is right he runs. He's in very good order, he's ready to rock and roll.
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We are more optimistic about growth recovery, and have taken a fresh 5-year look at our earnings forecast for the company.
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Champions know that success is inevitable; that there is no such thing as failure, only feedback. They know that the best way to forecast the future is to create it.
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But to forecast beyond that ... we don't have a lot of confidence in our ability to do that, so we're not going to give any numbers beyond the first quarter,
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With both fiscal and monetary policy now set to tighten slightly next year, we remain comfortable with our forecast of a mere 1 percent expansion next year.
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Our fleet forecast projects that these manufacturers may not be able to build enough of these things fast enough. If they're anywhere near as advertised in terms of performance, it's going to be a stampede to buy them.
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Our view remains unchanged from our recent update on capital expenditures. We believe that in 2001 cap-ex will be up approximately 10 percent. We continue to forecast 17-18 percent industry growth in 2001. We expect the stocks to remain under pressure over the next few weeks as investors digest capital spending plans from carriers.
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I think the economy is recovering and we won't get into a double dip. But trying to forecast when that economic strength shows up in earnings is a kind of fool's game. We've been playing it for about two-and-a -half years now,